Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTHEAST TO
PALESTINE. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
BROWNWOOD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THE RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS SLIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD
END THIS EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON IS HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. AS IT DOES THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIFT TO THE NORTH RETURNING MOISTURE TO ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. IN THIS UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE SHORTWAVES. ALL
MODELS HANDLE EACH OF THESE MINOR DISTURBANCE DIFFERENTLY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT THE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIME OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES AND DRIED
THE FORECAST DURING THE REMAINING TIME FRAMES. EVEN THESE TWO
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON THE LOCATION OF THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTEGRATION WITH NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
GENERATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT RETURNING THE REGION
TO A DRIER EARLY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   69  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX               72  95  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
PARIS, TX              69  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX             68  93  72  90 /   0   0   0  20
MCKINNEY, TX           70  92  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX             70  93  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX            72  92  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          73  93  74  93 /  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             72  96  74  96 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ATHENS TO CLEBURNE LINE AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. CONVERGENCE ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ALL STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE ONCE SURFACE HEATING IS LOST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 9 PM ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.