Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 291905
FFSFTW
TXC085-113-121-292045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR DENTON...COLLIN AND DALLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY 
RAINFALL PERSIST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM LEWISVILLE...TO PLANO 
AND SEAGOVILLE. RAINFALL RATES UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL RESULT 
IN RAPID RUNOFF AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...ESCAPE RISING WATER BY MOVING DIRECTLY TO
HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT CAMP OR PARK YOUR VEHICLE ALONG STREAMS AND
WASHES. PAY ATTENTION TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT AND TO
RAPID INCREASES IN STREAM LEVELS AND FLOW.

LAT...LON 3336 9643 3302 9635 3302 9655 3257 9658
          3259 9700 3304 9698 3304 9734 3341 9736
          3339 9689

$$

65/DD

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 292044
FFSFTW
TXC085-113-121-292100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING COLLIN...DALLAS AND DENTON COUNTIES EXPIRED
AT 345 PM CDT...

REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE THAT FLASH FLOODING HAS ABATED
ACROSS COLLIN...DALLAS AND DENTON COUNTIES. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...MOTORISTS SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WITH THE SATURATED GROUNDS...AND WATER 
ALREADY HIGH IN THE STREAMS AND CREEKS...ANY MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL 
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.


LAT...LON 3338 9635 3301 9633 3300 9653 3258 9658
          3257 9700 3302 9703 3303 9733 3338 9733

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.UPDATE...
KFWS 88D SHOWING LINE OF RW/EMBEDDED TRW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
KGLE-KHQZ-KLHB. THIS LINE WILL MOVE E/NE AT 10-20 MPH FOR REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS/GREATEST REMAINING FLOOD THREAT
TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THIS AREA GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER
SFC HEATING PROGGED IN THIS REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...AND WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FFAFTW FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 01/03Z.

65/DD

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LINE TSRA MOVING ACROSS METROPLEX STATIONS NOW AND EXITING WACO AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS SHOULD BE LAST TSRA FOR TODAY AS SOME
SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BEHIND THE VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS THOUGH AS SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE
IN NORTH TEXAS BUT DONT SEE ANY ORGANIZED THREAT TO AIRPORTS. THERE
IS A SECONDARY VORT MAX THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH OF METROPLEX
THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY WILL PRODUCE ONLY SHOWERS AS BEST LIFT IS
FARTHER NORTH. NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS
SHOW MCS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL ADD THAT TO
18Z TAFS. 84

&&

.PREV FORECAST DISCUSSION
 400 AM CDT...

LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL AFFECT MAINLY SW/SC ZONES THIS MORNING.
FURTHER PRECIP LIKELY TODAY...WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...NUMEROUS
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...APPROACHING SW SET TO ARRIVE MIDDAY...AND
CONSIDERABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. STORM MOTION WILL REDUCE TRAINING
EFFECTS...BUT FLOOD WATCH STILL NEEDED...AS ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
SUPERSATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT RAINS
LIKELY DONE BY THEN...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY EXTEND WATCH AS
NEEDED. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SIGNIFICANT RAINS MAY COME THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL NORTH...BUT POSITION OF SFC TROUGH STILL IN
QUESTION. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MAY REACH NORTH TEXAS VIA
NW FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MCS...40 POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SUMMER SUN MAKES LONG-AWAITED RETURN FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS LIKELY WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SOIL MOISTURE UNACCOUNTED
FOR IN MOS CALCULATIONS. NEW 06Z ETA NOW CUTTING BACK ON WEEKEND
PRECIP IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AS UPPER RIDGING FAILS TO TAKE CONTROL...NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE.

ECMWF BRING CLIMO RIDGE IN NEXT WEEK...BUT GFS AND CANADIAN A BIT
RELUCTANT TO DO SO. NONETHELESS...FINALLY A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. TEMPS
A BIT BELOW CLIMO WITH LINGERING GROUNDWATER...AND PALTRY
SUBSIDENCE. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POPS/TEMPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   83  71  85  72 /  70  40  40  40
WACO, TX               84  72  87  72 /  80  40  30  30
PARIS, TX              82  71  84  72 /  70  40  40  40
DENTON, TX             83  70  85  71 /  70  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX           83  70  85  71 /  70  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX             83  71  85  72 /  70  40  40  40
TERRELL, TX            83  72  85  72 /  70  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX          84  72  86  72 /  70  40  30  30
TEMPLE, TX             84  71  87  72 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 1000 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. WITH WIDESPREAD SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL CAUSE NUISANCE FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL RESULT IN MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT
HEAVY RAINS. RIVER FLOODING AND OTHER ONGOING HIGH WATER ISSUES ARE
LIKELY TO BE EXACERBATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...AND CONTINUING ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR REPORTS OF HIGH
WATER.

25