Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 291808
FFSFTW
TXC251-439-291945-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
108 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR TARRANT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS 
NOW SHIFTED FROM FAR NORTHERN FORT WORTH...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE 
CEDAR HILL AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODED 
ROADWAYS IN WESTERN TARRANT COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG JACKSBORO 
HIGHWAY IN THE AREA AROUND SANSOM PARK. 

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...ESCAPE RISING WATER BY MOVING DIRECTLY TO
HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT CAMP OR PARK YOUR VEHICLE ALONG STREAMS AND
WASHES. PAY ATTENTION TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT AND TO
RAPID INCREASES IN STREAM LEVELS AND FLOW.

$$

65/DD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.UPDATE...
KFWS 88D SHOWING LINE OF RW/EMBEDDED TRW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
KGLE-KHQZ-KLHB. THIS LINE WILL MOVE E/NE AT 10-20 MPH FOR REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST POPS/GREATEST REMAINING FLOOD THREAT
TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THIS AREA GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER
SFC HEATING PROGGED IN THIS REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...AND WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE FFAFTW FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 01/03Z.

65/DD

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LINE TSRA MOVING ACROSS METROPLEX STATIONS NOW AND EXITING WACO AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS SHOULD BE LAST TSRA FOR TODAY AS SOME
SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BEHIND THE VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS THOUGH AS SOME CLEARING WILL ALLOW HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE
IN NORTH TEXAS BUT DONT SEE ANY ORGANIZED THREAT TO AIRPORTS. THERE
IS A SECONDARY VORT MAX THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH OF METROPLEX
THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY WILL PRODUCE ONLY SHOWERS AS BEST LIFT IS
FARTHER NORTH. NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS
SHOW MCS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL ADD THAT TO
18Z TAFS. 84

&&

.PREV FORECAST DISCUSSION
 400 AM CDT...

LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT. AREA OF HEAVY PRECIP
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL AFFECT MAINLY SW/SC ZONES THIS MORNING.
FURTHER PRECIP LIKELY TODAY...WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...NUMEROUS
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...APPROACHING SW SET TO ARRIVE MIDDAY...AND
CONSIDERABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. STORM MOTION WILL REDUCE TRAINING
EFFECTS...BUT FLOOD WATCH STILL NEEDED...AS ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
SUPERSATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT RAINS
LIKELY DONE BY THEN...BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY EXTEND WATCH AS
NEEDED. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SIGNIFICANT RAINS MAY COME THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL NORTH...BUT POSITION OF SFC TROUGH STILL IN
QUESTION. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MAY REACH NORTH TEXAS VIA
NW FLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MCS...40 POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SUMMER SUN MAKES LONG-AWAITED RETURN FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS LIKELY WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SOIL MOISTURE UNACCOUNTED
FOR IN MOS CALCULATIONS. NEW 06Z ETA NOW CUTTING BACK ON WEEKEND
PRECIP IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AS UPPER RIDGING FAILS TO TAKE CONTROL...NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE.

ECMWF BRING CLIMO RIDGE IN NEXT WEEK...BUT GFS AND CANADIAN A BIT
RELUCTANT TO DO SO. NONETHELESS...FINALLY A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. TEMPS
A BIT BELOW CLIMO WITH LINGERING GROUNDWATER...AND PALTRY
SUBSIDENCE. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POPS/TEMPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   83  71  85  72 /  70  40  40  40
WACO, TX               84  72  87  72 /  80  40  30  30
PARIS, TX              82  71  84  72 /  70  40  40  40
DENTON, TX             83  70  85  71 /  70  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX           83  70  85  71 /  70  40  40  40
DALLAS, TX             83  71  85  72 /  70  40  40  40
TERRELL, TX            83  72  85  72 /  70  40  40  40
CORSICANA, TX          84  72  86  72 /  70  40  30  30
TEMPLE, TX             84  71  87  72 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 1000 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. WITH WIDESPREAD SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL CAUSE NUISANCE FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL RESULT IN MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT
HEAVY RAINS. RIVER FLOODING AND OTHER ONGOING HIGH WATER ISSUES ARE
LIKELY TO BE EXACERBATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...AND CONTINUING ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR REPORTS OF HIGH
WATER.

25