Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST TUE JUL 13 2004

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO ARIZONA THIS
WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND YAVAPAI COUNTY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE INVERTED TROF THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW
NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN WITH THIS
FEATURE. ALSO NOTED IS A VORT MAX ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINES.
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE A BIT SLOWER TO START TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO AM
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAP SEEN THE 18Z SOUNDING.

THE COMPLIMENTING FLOWS AROUND THESE TWO FEATURES MEANS A MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ETA BROUGHT THE VORT MAX NOW
ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE TO THE AZ/NM STATE LINE 24 HOURS FROM NOW.
THIS FEATURE COULD SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK TO PRESCOTT AND
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES TO REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN
YAVAPAI COUNTIES AND HAVE PAINTED THESE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...DIDNT MAKE TO MANY CHANGES AS FLOW ALOFT IS
RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING MOISTURE THATS OVERHEAD FRIDAY NOT LIKELY TO
GET MOVED OUT. THUS WILL KEEP THE LOW GRADE CHANCES OF PRECIP.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUL 13 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-141400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
915 AM MST TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
AFTER MID MORNING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA AFTER NOON. STORM MOVEMENT TODAY SHOULD BE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY ARE WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH...AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER LATE MORNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.