Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER GENERATED FROM LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA IS MOVING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN IN THIS CWA ANY LONGER. NOT MUCH DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM FLAGSTAFF EAST AND SOUTHEAST...SO CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
HAMPERED EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS LOTS OF RAIN
COOLED AIR AND CLOUD COVER. MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH
HIGH PW VALUES AND MODERATE TO HIGH VALUES OF AVAILABLE CAPE. THE
ONLY THING MISSING IS SHEAR...SO STORMS WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY TO BECOME ORGANIZED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...BUT
THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE DESERTS SOUTH OF THE FLAGSTAFF CWA. WILL
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ZONES AS NEEDED...BASIC IDEA OF ACTIVE
DAYS TODAY AND THURSDAY LOOKING GOOD. PETERSON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-151400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
920 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE STATE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THE STRONGEST AND MOST FREQUENT STORMS
WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM FLAGSTAFF TO HEBER AND POINTS
SOUTH...INCLUDING MOST OF NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THESE
AREAS WILL SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE GROUND OVER THE STATE IS STILL
DRY...SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE AREAS HAVE A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY IF HEAVY RAIN HITS
THE SAME LOCATIONS AGAIN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...STORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND WILL
HAVE LESS POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND ORGANIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY...STORM ACTIVITY WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.