Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST MON AUG 16 2004

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A DAY TO
DAY DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DRIER AIR MASS GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE STATE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA ATTM
WITH A WEAK TROF EXTENDING FROM IT ACROSS CENTRAL AZ. AT H30 50 KT
JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW AND IS PROGGED TO EJECT
INTO UT TONIGHT. AIR MASS OVER THE CWA REMAINS MOIST...SFC DPS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. MAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN OVER EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE TODAY. 12Z FGZ SOUNDING HAS A MORE UNSTABLE PROFILE THAN
YESTERDAY BUT SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. EXPECTING TSTMS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
AGAIN TODAY. STORM STARTS WILL BE EARLIEST IN THE MORNING SUNSHINE
AREAS...BASICALLY RIM WESTWARD. MOST ACTIVE AREA LIKELY TO BE OVER
THE NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSEST TO THE JET STREAK AND COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH NV LOW. AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY PRECIP
WITH THESE STORMS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. MODELS INDICATE A SLOW
DRYING TREND...MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. ZONES UPDATED EARLIER AND REMAIN
ON TRACK. DF

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST MON AUG 16 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-171400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
945 AM MST MON AUG 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHLAND. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. LOOK FOR THE STORMS TO FORM
FIRST OVER THE AREAS FROM THE RIM WESTWARD...WITH AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY TO THE WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO A DRIER WESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT LOOK FOR A DOWNWARD
TREND...AFTER TUESDAY...IN THE AMOUNT OF STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.