Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN AUG 15 2004

.SYNOPSIS...THE DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP IN THOSE CLOUD FREE ZONES OF
THIS MORNING. TEMPS THERE UP 5 DEGREES OR MORE FROM YESTERDAY. AREAS
UNDER CLOUD BAND STILL STRUGGLING TO WARM AND REMAIN STORM FREE ATTM.
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT 88D
ESTIMATES SHOW MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS BEGINNING TO FALL OVER THE
EASTERN RIM.

COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. CONFLUENT ZONE PROGGED
TO REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE RIM AND WHITES. THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER
WILL IMPACT WHERE THE GREATEST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AND A POSES A REAL
CHALLENGE TO FORECAST. SUSPECT BAND WILL REMAIN OVER THE RIM AND
WHITES AGAIN TOMORROW. AIR MASS STAYS VERY MOIST WITH PWS OF 0.5 TO
ONE INCH AND DPS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA. STABILITY INDEXES REMAIN
UNCHANGED TOMORROW WITH LOW LIS AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. SEE ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE CWA. H5 HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY AS S/WV TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
BRINGS COOLER AIR ALOFT INTO NW AZ. WILL RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

EXTENDED...LOOKING AT SCATTERED POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK TROF
REMAINS OVER UT. ON THURSDAY THE MONSOON BOUNDARY BEINGS TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AS A DRIER INTRUSION OF AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. DF

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 15 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-161400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-

1000 AM MST SUN AUG 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY.
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE MORNING OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE 4
CORNERS AREA AND THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EARLY HEATING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM...WHITES AND KAIBAB PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOK
FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING IS A THREAT. SOME DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR A POSSIBLE DOWNTREND IN STORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DF