Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
225 PM MST MON AUG 09 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE
END OF WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS START TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS LESSER AMOUNTS WESTWARD ALONG THE RIM
AND INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS CAPE VALUES DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY. STREAMLINES SHIFT AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL HIGH MOVES WESTWARD. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL REMAIN
IN AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ANY INCREASE
SEEN TODAY WILL BEGIN TO GET SCOURED OUT. WILL DECREASE POPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH...LEAVING THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF THE
RIM.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A MODEST TO PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
BEGIN TO RAMP POPS UP FOR THE LAST 3 OR 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMO/MEDIUM GRADE MONSOON AS THE MECHANISM TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD SEEMS A BIT UNSURE. PETERSON.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST MON AUG 9 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-101400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
920 AM MST MON AUG 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOISTURE VALUES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. THE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE IS STILL
RATHER DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM.

EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
MORNING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
ONLY LIGHT RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH.

VERY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...AND THE LACK OF
RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE RISK FOR FLOODING TODAY REMAINS
LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.