Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST MON AUG 09 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PUSH OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE AT A
MINIMUM...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE END OF WEEK AS MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MCV THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER HAS INDUCED SOME SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 700MB STREAMLINES MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALREADY WE HAVE MORE PW
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN SUNDAY...AND WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...WE SHOULD CONVECT MORE AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
RAISE POPS AND PUSH THEM FURTHER NORTH INTO THIS EVENING...TEXT
UPDATES WILL FOLLOW. AFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS BACK
ON TRACK WITH DRYING FLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN MOISTURE
SURGES BACK NORTHWARD. PETERSON.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST MON AUG 9 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-101400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
920 AM MST MON AUG 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOISTURE VALUES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS SOME SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION. THE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE IS STILL
RATHER DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM.

EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
MORNING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
ONLY LIGHT RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH.

VERY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...AND THE LACK OF
RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE RISK FOR FLOODING TODAY REMAINS
LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.