Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2004, 1:30 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 27, 2004, 1:30 PM MST (20:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 27, 2004, 2:00 PM MST
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 1:30 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -204 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1870 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 0 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 0 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 0 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 9:25 AM MST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 9:25 AM MST, 4 hours 5 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 925 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004 .SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. STARTING TOMORROW A DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE...ALLOWING FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES TO AFFECT NORTHERN AZ. THE MAIN ONE WE ARE WATCHING TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NV AND WESTERN UT. JET STREAK OF AROUND 50KT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DESERT ROCK NV TO FLAGSTAFF AND THIS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW GOOD VEERING WITH HEIGHT THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON KPSR SOUNDING (WIND DATA FROM 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING WAS UNAVAILABLE). MODEL SOUNDINGS TREND THE SHEAR TOWARD MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL LATER TODAY...BUT WITH STRONG FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THE JET STREAM LEVEL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE UP FOR THIS DRYING. THE SHORTWAVE OVER NV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO FAR NW AZ BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NE AZ THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BETTER WIND SHEAR POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD LAST LATE INTO THE NIGHT OVER NE AZ...SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. SOUTHEAST YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON OUTFLOW FROM THE RIM CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW IS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. ONGOING STORMS MOVING INTO YAVAPAI ARE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SO THESE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION STILL COMING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. WILL COVER THIS IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. FYI...18Z SOUNDING SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FROM KFGZ DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT TEST. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && JOHNDROW
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 10:00 AM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 7:08 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 22 min |
| Jul 27, 1:06 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 24 min |
| Jul 27, 2:01 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 29 min |
| Jul 27, 3:21 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 24 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.