Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST MON JUL 26 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...AND THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST BEGINNING
ON TUESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE ANTICYCLONES REMAIN TO BOTH THE WEST AND THE
EAST OF AZ THIS MORNING. THE WEAKENING INVERTED TROF (IV#6) OVER NRN
MX REMAINS IN PLACE. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
NRN PORTION OF THIS WAVE AND RESIDES OVER WRN NM AND SRN AZ.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK S/W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WERE MOVING
ACROSS AZ TODAY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
WAVE AND JET HAVE GENERATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THESE ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT DYNAMICS WITH THESE FEATURES TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN THE NRN AND NERN ZONES TONIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED
POPS ACCORDINGLY.

DRY AIR SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY AND POPS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER AS A RESULT. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN THAT THERE SHOULD STILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DRYING TREND BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH INTRODUCING THIS DRYING...
BUT HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF BOTH THE
BEGINNING AND THE ENDING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL THE
DRYING IS ESTABLISHED.

EXTENDED...DRIER WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INCREASES
SHOWER ACTIVITY.  DB

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST MON JUL 26 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-271400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
950 AM MST SAT JUL 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP STORMS GOING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY.
STORMS THAT FORM ON THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE RIM INTO THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATION STORMS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH SMALL HAIL. IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ALSO INDICATES THAT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH AND...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE DRYING TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.