Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WAS NOTED
THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM STORMS YESTERDAY
AND A WEAK GULF SURGE. THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS
BEEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
THIS AREA IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH MIDNIGHT SO POPS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE. A VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW EXISTS FOR STORMS OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM. THE LITTLE STEERING FLOW WE DO HAVE OVER YAVAPAI
COUNTY IS FROM THE WEST BASED ON OBSERVED STORM MOTION. THIS IS
MAKING IT LOOK LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
MOVING INTO YAVAPAI TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THERE
AND ANY OUTFLOWS MOVING THROUGH WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SETTING OFF A
STORM. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OFF THE CHUSKA MTNS AND
MOGOLLON RIM ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES OF CONVECTION GOING INTO THE EVENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD PUTTING OUR AREA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. POPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE RIM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA
COUNTIES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
PUT NORTHERN AZ IN A DRIER PATTERN.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

JOHNDROW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-241400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH. EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF THE
RIM INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.