Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF WITH SOME EASTERLY FLOW TO OUR
SOUTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY MAY DRAW BETTER MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA. ALSO...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA AS AN AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE SLIDES INTO THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD PUSH HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TODAY. UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE ALIGNED OVER THE NE PART OF THE
STATE TODAY...LENDING SUPPORT TO STORMS THERE. FOR THESE
REASONS...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER HIGH
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD PUTTING OUR AREA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. POPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER THE RIM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA
COUNTIES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
PUT NORTHERN AZ IN A DRIER PATTERN.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

JOHNDROW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-241400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH. EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OFF THE
RIM INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.