Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST THU JUL 15 2004

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL LEAD
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THESE STORMS
WILL FORM FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH DIMINISH GRADUALLY EACH
DAY. EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CO KEEPING ARIZONA IN MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NM ALTHOUGH DEBRIS FROM CO AND CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO MOISTEN THIS AIRMASS UP. APPEARS THIS DRY AIR WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
DRYING LIKELY ABOVE 5H IN THE WHITES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK IMPULSE
SEEN IN IMAGERY OVER NM TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...SO WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BREAK OUT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT INITIAL ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY BY MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE
RIM AND WHITES LATER IN THE MORNING AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ...WITH SLOWEST MOVING
STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
THE DEFORMATION ZONE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TODAY...BUT RATHER OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS. WITH PW VALUES AROUND
AN INCH AND LIGHT WINDS...HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ESP WITH THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. HOWEVER...NO
REAL FEATURE TO ORGANIZE LARGE SCALE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT
WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCAL PROBLEMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. WILL BE UPDATING
ZONES TO PUT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD...OTHERWISE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. STAUDENMAIER

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST THU JUL 15 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-161400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE STATE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE MORNING
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE SHOULD SEE STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ONCE
DEVELOPED...THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. BECAUSE SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL
EXISTS IF HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER THESE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.