Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST WED JUL 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPED ABOUT AS EXPECTED TODAY WITH COPIOUS
RAIN PRODUCERS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RIM. THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET (ABOUT 120-130 PERCENT OF NORMAL) FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKENING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER BIG DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS TO
A MINIMUM...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES. 18Z MESO-ETA SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER MCS
TONIGHT...THIS ONE POTENTIALLY FARTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT. NEXT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS THIS IS THE ONE THING THAT
MAY INDUCE SOME FLOODING. AFTER TOMORROW...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY FILTER IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE 4-CORNERS HIGH NEVER REALLY RELINQUISHES ITS
HOLD. SO...ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TO A MORE NORMAL LEVEL AND DIURNAL
ROTATION...BUT WE WILL NOT DRY OUT COMPLETELY. PETERSON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-151400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
920 AM MST WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE STATE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THE STRONGEST AND MOST FREQUENT STORMS
WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM FLAGSTAFF TO HEBER AND POINTS
SOUTH...INCLUDING MOST OF NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THESE
AREAS WILL SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE GROUND OVER THE STATE IS STILL
DRY...SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE AREAS HAVE A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY IF HEAVY RAIN HITS
THE SAME LOCATIONS AGAIN.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...STORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND WILL
HAVE LESS POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND ORGANIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY...STORM ACTIVITY WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.