Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
EFFICIENT EARLY APRIL RAIN MAKING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY.  MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EAST HALF OF CWA...WHERE
RAIN APPEARS LIKELY AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISK IS HIGH.
CONFIGURED POPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS TO MATCH MESO SCALE TRENDS
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE ON GOING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
LEFT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FORECASTS AS SHOWN BY EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EAST HALF OF CWA GOES
TRHOUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL REEVALUTE FOR EXTENSION IN
TIME OR CHANGES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND. IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS WILL
IMPACT THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST IMPULSE APPROACHING THE
CWFA IS ALREADY GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND. AS THIS INITIAL IMPULSE SHEARS OUT OVER THE
CWFA TODAY EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SPC HAS PLACED SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
TODAY. IF ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL NOT INCLUDE SEVERE IN THE
ZONE FCST BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.50 INCHES. WILL NOT
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED...BUT WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONE
FCST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN SATURDAY WITH THE EXIT OF THE FIRST WAVE
OF CONVECTION. THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY
ATTM WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
BAJA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  59  76  51 / 100  70  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  59  76  52 / 100  70  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  64  78  57 /  70  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  61  76  56 / 100  70  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST HALF OF
CWA THRU 4 PM.

&&

08/18/13/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
519 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031200-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
519 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SENDS OUT AN
IMPULSE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SLACKEN SATURDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.