Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT
MID AFTERNOON...THE FRANKENSTEIN MIX OF THE MID LATITUDES AND
TROPICS. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE AVERAGED ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH SINCE 7
AM...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...MOIST GULF AIR...
WEAK STEERING WINDS...AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN OVER
TEXAS. THUS...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM
TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY IT MAY GO INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES WIDESPREAD...WITH ISOLATED 4-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND
REMAINS MOSTLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS MAY ALLOW NOCTURNAL MCS TO MOVE DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TX...BUT THE MAIN EXPECTATION IS VERY LOW POP...SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY. IN OTHER WORDS...MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER. SIMILARLY...
TEMPS WILL MOVE UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  88  72  88 /  60  70  50  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  88  71  87 /  60  70  50  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  89  72  89 /  80  60  50  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  88  73  87 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY.

&&

26/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
544 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 5 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.