Flash Flood Warning 303, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
422 AM CDT SAT OCT  2 2004

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 PERCENT FOR SOME OF OUR E-SE
COUNTIES AND ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION. ALSO INCREASED QPF
FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM DALLAS
TO BROWNWOOD TO FORT STOCKTON. CONVECTION BEING FORCED BY THE
FRONT AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME PULSE-TYPE SEVERE OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL TX...BUT
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF CWA
EWX AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONT TODAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW-TO-NO POPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE ALOFT AND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO CHANGES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TX AND THE GULF BREAKING-
DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING AND APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH INTO TX. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS PATTERN EVOLVING AROUND MID-WEEK AND HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. ASSUMING THESE MODELS VERIFY...WE MAY BE HEADED INTO A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO 30 PERCENT AND MENTION A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TREND UP WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FROM MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

11/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
549 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY THIS
MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL RATES
OF GENERALLY OF THREE QUARTERS TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  HOWEVER...FLOODING WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO
WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
HIGH RATES OF LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.