Flash Flood Warning 301, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Issued

Oct 2, 2004, 4:27 AM CDT (09:27 UTC)

Expired

Oct 2, 2004, 7:30 AM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Hays County, TX, Travis County, TX

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

000 
WGUS54 KEWX 020930
FFWSAT
TXC209-453-021230-
/X.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0002.041002T0927Z-041002T1230Z/
/0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
427 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
  TRAVIS
  HAYS

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 423 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WEST LAKE HILLS...ROLLINGWOOD...
  MANSFIELD DAM...MANOR...LAKEWAY...LAGO VISTA...BEE CAVE AND AUSTIN.


A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH WAS PRODUCING 
RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR.   

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS...UNDERPASSES AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED AREAS. A LITTLE
OVER A FOOT OF WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST CARS AND TRUCKS. TURN AROUND
- DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3005 9825 2983 9799 3041 9742 3041 9778
      3057 9801

$$

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 2, 4:24 AM CDT, 3 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
422 AM CDT SAT OCT  2 2004

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 PERCENT FOR SOME OF OUR E-SE
COUNTIES AND ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION. ALSO INCREASED QPF
FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM DALLAS
TO BROWNWOOD TO FORT STOCKTON. CONVECTION BEING FORCED BY THE
FRONT AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME PULSE-TYPE SEVERE OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL TX...BUT
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF CWA
EWX AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONT TODAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LOW-TO-NO POPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE ALOFT AND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO CHANGES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TX AND THE GULF BREAKING-
DOWN AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING AND APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH INTO TX. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS PATTERN EVOLVING AROUND MID-WEEK AND HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. ASSUMING THESE MODELS VERIFY...WE MAY BE HEADED INTO A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCREASE
POPS TO 30 PERCENT AND MENTION A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TREND UP WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FROM MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

11/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 AM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-021100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
501 AM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.