Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KANSAS..AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...HAS QUICKLY ERODED THE CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS HAS HELP THE COLD FRONT
SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK SOUTHEAST THEY WILL TAP THE 70+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS...PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY FOR FUELING THE STORMS. A WARM
FRONT...MOVING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI...SHOULD INHIBIT MOST
OF THE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS CITY TO WARRENSBURG TO SEDALIA. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE
LARGE CAP ON THE 18Z SOUNDING OUT OF SPRINGFIELD. HENCE...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 50
TILL 9 PM.

WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SURFACE BASED STORMS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BETHANY TO OAK GROVE TO CLINTON. STORMS TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE
SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH AND LIMITED ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM.

FOR FRIDAY...THE DRY AIR BEHIND TODAYS FRONT SHOULD GIVE US A
REPRIEVE  FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WE HAVE HAD OF LATE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUND BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL THREATENING. THE GFS AND ETA MODELS ARE DISPLAYING A HIGH
AMOUNT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONTAL FEATURES. THE WESTERLY UNDER CUTTING A GULF OF ALASKA LOW
ARE PROGGED TO TURN THE TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST...INTO MORE OF A CUTOFF LOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WITH REGARDS TO SATURDAYS WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE WARM FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH SATURDAY...AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...HAS BEEN MITIGATE IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. BOTH
THE GFS AND ETA PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT
DEFINES THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED TO OUR EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES THAT
WOULD DEFINE A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
THROUGH MISSOURI. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE MODELS LOOKS TO BE A
LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON
CAPES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE...HILICITIES RUNNING
AROUND 200-300 M2/S2...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8
C/KM...THOUGHTS ARE THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A GOOD BET. THE
TIMING FOR THE ACTIVE CONVECTION LOOKS BEST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAGGED THROUGH EAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...BUT THEY HAVE
SPEED UP ITS MOVEMENT BY SWINGING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY WHEN THE BEST
AFTERNOON HEATING AND SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING SHOULD START THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

CUTTER

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

911 AM...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

NRR

340 AM THU...
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO A POSSIBLE CONCERN THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A ILL DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN FAST
ZONAL FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305-310K
SURFACE WAS TRIGGERING A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI. RUC AND MESOETA SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING IS DIMINISHING. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT ANY FLASH FLOODING TO
BE ISOLATED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ONE HALF OF THE CWA. MESOETA SHOWS CAP BUILDING INTO
THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. MESOETA PUSHES
THE FRONT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG SFC-6KM
SHEAR...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. DUE TO WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES IS LOW AS SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA
ON FRIDAY AS PER THE ETA AND GFS...THUS WILL ONLY RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. MESOETA/GFS BOTH INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC-6KM SHEAR PROFILE
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...THERE IS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT WITH
CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

MODELS NOW QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES IN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE
NOCTURNAL COOLING...TORNADOES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.

EARLY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE BECOMING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL. AS A RESULT...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

DUE TO THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HAVE CUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308 TILL 6 PM FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO BETHANY TO TRENTON TO KIRKSVILLE.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310 TILL 9 PM FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO BETHANY TO TRENTON TO KIRKSVILLE...AND NORTH
OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 50.
...FLOOD WATCH FROM 400 PM CDT THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES MOZ005>008...MOZ014>017...MOZ022>025...MOZ030>033...
MOZ038>040... MOZ044>046...MOZ054.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281100-

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO WARRENSBURG TO CLINTON. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO MISSOURI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY...A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM MARYVILLE TO WARRENSBURG TO CLINTON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
251 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TORNADO          MELBOURNE               40.15N 93.78W
05/27/2004                   HARRISON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ALONG THE GRUNDY-HARRISON COUNTY
            LINE NEAR MELBOURNE

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             BRIMSON                 40.14N 93.74W
05/27/2004  1.00 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     TORNADO          4 W TRENTON             40.08N 93.68W
05/27/2004                   GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT 146 AND 128 HIGHWAY 4 MILES WEST OF
            TRENTON

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
304 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             5 W TRENTON             40.08N 93.70W
05/27/2004  2.00 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W TRENTON             40.08N 93.70W
05/27/2004  60 MPH           GRUNDY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
310 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 S BRIMSON             40.12N 93.74W
05/27/2004  2.50 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S BRIMSON             40.12N 93.74W
05/27/2004  60 MPH           GRUNDY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0308 PM     HAIL             TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
05/27/2004  2.75 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0308 PM     TSTM WND GST     TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
05/27/2004  80 MPH           GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            70 TO 80 MPH WINDS REPORTED

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             5 SW BRIMSON            40.09N 93.80W
05/27/2004  2.75 INCH        DAVIESS            MO   PUBLIC

            2 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS ALSO REPORTED DOWN.

0312 PM     HAIL             TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
05/27/2004  4.00 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINE ALSO REPORTED DOWN

&&

MJM