Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Kansas City, MO

August 27, 2004Carroll County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 27, 2004, 8:38 PM CDT for Carroll County, Missouri. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 27, 2004, 8:38 PM CDT (01:38 UTC)
Expired: Aug 27, 2004, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Carroll County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 27, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3473 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1317 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 229 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.8
Supercell composite: 28.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KEAX 280138
SVREAX
MOC033-280245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
838 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF DAWN TO 3
  MILES EAST OF NORBORNE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHILLICOTHE
  TO 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARSHALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   CARROLLTON BY 845 PM CDT.
   WAKENDA BY 855 PM CDT.
   HALE BY 900 PM CDT.
   BOSWORTH BY 905 PM CDT.
   DE WITT BY 915 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF TINA IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3961 9328 3958 9328 3955 9331 3948 9329
      3942 9318 3939 9321 3933 9334 3926 9337
      3933 9347 3930 9363 3961 9365

$$


MJ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 27, 3:20 PM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 27, 3:20 PM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM ROUGHLY
BETHANY TO MUSCOTAH KANSAS...AND INITIATION OCCURRING AT THE
ANTICIPATED TIME.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UPDATED TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM.  GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY A MULTICELLULAR...HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.  SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN TO NORTHCENTRAL MISSOURI...MOST NOTABLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.  WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT BY MID SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...ENDING
THE WEEK OF ACTIVE WEATHER.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MOST
ACTIVITY INTO AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AND MINNESOTA...WITH RIDGING
MOVING INTO PLACE BY MID WEEK.  THEREFORE...DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN
IN TACT UNTIL FURTHER MODEL RUNS ADVERTISE OTHERWISE.  TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PRIOR TO NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.

LEINS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION
1017 AM CDT
UPDATES TO FORECAST FORTHCOMING TO INCLUDE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER UNTIL 3 PM...AND TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.  THUNDERSTORMS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CENTRAL
INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  MLCAPES THIS MORNING ALREADY AT OR
ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A LOOK OUT THE DOOR INDICATES DEVELOPING CU FIELD FROM
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
PLEASANT HILL.  STORMS THIS MORNING ARE DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF KANSAS CITY
ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF FALLS CITY TO NEAR BETHANY.  MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT.

EXPECT TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS OF STORMS TODAY.  THE FIRST WILL AFFECT
MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLOODING RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WHEN WE TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AND 12Z MODEL QPF
INDICATIVE OF A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAIN EVENT LATER TONIGHT.  HAVE
HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS CONCERN IN MIND FOR TONIGHT.

WILL ALSO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES...WHICH MAY
FLIRT WITH THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES.
MO...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO
BETHANY LINE.

WFO EAX

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 27, 12:41 PM CDT, 7 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281100-

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY BETWEEN 2
AND 4 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE.  SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH.  WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD MINIMIZE THE
THREAT FOR HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
PENNY OR QUARTER SIZE.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL LIKELY BE COMMON TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-35...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  PERSONS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
RAINFALL TRENDS LATER TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREATS...THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105....MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS
CITY TO MOBERLY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

HUDSON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 27, 6:37 PM CDT, 2 hours 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW MILAN              40.28N 93.23W
08/27/2004                   SULLIVAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES BLOCKING ROAD

&&

SF

Local storm report, Aug 27, 6:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             SHAWNEE                 39.02N 94.80W
08/27/2004  0.75 INCH        JOHNSON            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE.

&&

HUDSON

Local storm report, Aug 27, 6:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
656 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             KANSAS CITY KS          39.12N 94.73W
08/27/2004  0.75 INCH        WYANDOTTE          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            126TH AND STATE.

&&

HUDSON

Local storm report, Aug 27, 7:24 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
724 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             DENTON                  39.73N 95.27W
08/27/2004  0.88 INCH        DONIPHAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY DONIPHAN COUNTY SO.

&&

HUDSON

Local storm report, Aug 27, 7:49 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
749 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
08/27/2004                   JACKSON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROADS COVERED ON WARD PARKWAY.

&&

HUDSON

Local storm report, Aug 27, 8:27 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
827 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MILAN               40.20N 93.16W
08/27/2004                   SULLIVAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT ALONG STATE ROUTE PP, WATER OVER THE
            ROAD ALONG STATE ROUTE D IN GREEN CASTLE, INTERSECTIONS
            OF STATE ROUTES J AND Y WITH STATE ROUTE 6 UNDER WATER

0817 PM     HAIL             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
08/27/2004  0.88 INCH        BUCHANAN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N LOCK SPRINGS        39.86N 93.78W
08/27/2004                   DAVIESS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            V HIGHWAY AND 190 HIGHWAY. 10 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING
            ACROSS LOW WATER CROSSING.

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W BUCKNER             39.13N 94.29W
08/27/2004                   JACKSON            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER OVER 24 HIGHWAY

&&

HUDSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 27, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	78 min
Aug 27, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Ray	92 min
Aug 27, 7:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan	57 min
Aug 27, 7:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell	67 min
Aug 27, 7:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning Emergency	EAX	Clay, Jackson	6 hr
Aug 27, 8:09 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, Livingston	6 hr
Aug 27, 8:59 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Platte	6 hr
Aug 27, 9:20 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Macon	6 hr
Aug 27, 10:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Ray	6 hr
Aug 27, 11:15 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Putnam, Sullivan	6 hr
Aug 27, 11:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Grundy	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.