Alert archive / Iowa / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Quad Cities, IA

October 29, 2004Scott County, Iowa; Rock Island County, Illinois

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 29, 2004, 10:07 PM CDT for Scott County, Iowa; Rock Island County, Illinois. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 29, 2004, 10:07 PM CDT (03:07 UTC)
Expired: Oct 29, 2004, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Scott County, IA, Rock Island County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 4 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 29, 6:30 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 9 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1017 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1067 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.2
Supercell composite: 5.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KDVN 300307
SVRDVN
IAC163-ILC161-300400-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1005 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA
  NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLUE
  GRASS...OR ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF MUSCATINE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DAVENPORT AND DONAHUE BY 1025 PM CDT
  ELDRIDGE...LONG GROVE AND PARK VIEW BY 1030 PM CDT
  MCCAUSLAND...7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PRINCETON AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF CORDOVA BY 1040 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4176 9089 4163 9090 4161 9077 4146 9077
      4151 9042 4154 9027 4162 9017 4172 9027
      4175 9053 4174 9074

$$

WOLF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 29, 3:30 PM CDT, 6 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 29, 3:30 PM CDT, 6 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING AN ABRUPT END TO THE MILD WEATHER. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH AN EXPECTED
SQUALL LINE. GIVEN WINDS ALOFT...SQUALL LINE SHOULD MOVE AT A GOOD
CLIP AND CLEAR CWFA AROUND 08Z AS DRY PUNCH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. EARLIER IN HOUSE CALCULATIONS GAVE
A HAIL POTENTIAL UP TO 2 INCHES AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 65
MPH. TEMPS TO REALLY PLUMMET AFTER THE SQUALL LINE GOES THROUGH AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.   ...08...

.LONGER TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
STRENGTH OF THE WIND SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.  SURFACE LOW
TRACKS NE OUT OF THE NWRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.  TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND SURFACE LOW ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WINDY DAY.  LOCAL TECHNIQUE RELATING STRENGTH
OF MAX SURFACE GUSTS TO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H8 WINDS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD
INHIBIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING.  NO ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED FOR
NOW...BUT MID SHIFT WILL HAVE RE-EVALUATE.  WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR -RA IN THE WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD BE ATTAINED EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
TEMPS FALLING SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW.
SYSTEM PULL AWAY FROM CWA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEARING EXPECTED.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA.  NEXT SYSTEM HEADS
FOR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  ETA/GFS SUGGESTING INVERTED
TROF WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED ON PREVIOUS RUNS.  HOWEVER
THE ECMWF/UKMET IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER SHARP TROF MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.  ...DLF...

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)...
LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...AND HAVE LEFT FCST TO
REFLECT THAT.  POSSIBILITY OF SOME PCPN IN SOUTH WED AS UPPER LOW
MOVES UP OHIO VALLEY AND AGAIN IN MOST OF CWA THU PM AND FRI AM AS
SFC LOW MOVES NE OUT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO GOING FCST.  ..14..

&&

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 29, 12:00 PM CDT, 10 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301100-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.  THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AND WILL
PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE HIGHWAY 218 AND INTERSTATE 380
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM.  THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT PM AND THE FREEPORT AND PRINCETON
ILLINOIS AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL DECREASE
BACK TO 10 TO 20 MPH AROUND SUNSET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SHEETS/DLF/BRP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 29, 9:38 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
938 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W TIPTON              41.77N 91.26W
10/29/2004                   CEDAR              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

MZ

Local storm report, Oct 29, 9:52 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
952 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLIN                    42.00N 91.14W
10/29/2004  56 MPH           JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MZ

Local storm report, Oct 29, 9:55 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
955 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLIN                    42.00N 91.14W
10/29/2004  56 MPH           JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MZ

Local storm report, Oct 29, 9:56 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
956 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT PLEASANT          40.96N 91.55W
10/29/2004  58 MPH           HENRY              IA   AWOS

&&

MZ

Local storm report, Oct 29, 10:02 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1002 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND GST     MUSCATINE               41.42N 91.07W
10/29/2004  50 MPH           MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MZ

Special weather statement, Oct 29, 10:05 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1005 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-098-MOZ009-010-300400-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-CLARK MO-DELAWARE IA-IOWA IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JOHNSON IA-KEOKUK IA-LINN IA-SCOTLAND MO-VAN BUREN IA-WASHINGTON IA-
1005 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR CLARK AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
MISSOURI EXPIRED AT 10 PM.

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT HAS BEEN
CANCELED FOR BENTON...BUCHANAN...DELAWARE...IOWA...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...KEOKUK...LINN...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...ENDING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

DLF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 29, 7:20 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Benton, Iowa	55 min
Oct 29, 8:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, Washington	57 min
Oct 29, 9:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Johnson	45 min
Oct 29, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Cedar	33 min
Oct 29, 9:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Louisa	45 min
Oct 29, 9:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Jones	32 min
Oct 29, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Clinton	44 min
Oct 29, 9:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Muscatine	34 min
Oct 29, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Putnam	38 min
Oct 29, 9:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Mercer, Rock Island	39 min
Oct 29, 10:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Carroll, Jo Daviess	37 min
Oct 29, 10:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Stephenson	48 min
Oct 29, 11:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Whiteside	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Iowa, 2004 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.