Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN PROMINENT DURING THE DAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS INITIALLY, AND UP TO 2 INCH HAIL WITH THE LATER STORMS.
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS OF THE EVENT, WITH ROTATION
EVIDENT IN MANY OF THE STORMS. NOT A GOOD VORTICITY GENERATION
POTENTIAL (VGP) SIGNAL, SO STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WAS NOT
EFFICIENTLY INGESTED INTO THE STORMS FROM THE SURFACE. THIS MIGHT
HAVE KEPT THE CIRCULATIONS FROM BECOMING SURFACE BASED.

AS FOR THE NEXT STAGE OF THE EVENT, THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. SHEAR PROFILES, AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH TORNADOES A
STRONG THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 8 PM FOR MOST
OF THE CWA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) DISCUSSED THE STRONG
MARINE LAYER NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT, AND THAT IT MAY
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF TORNADOES FARTHER INTO THE ARROWHEAD...BUT THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS EVERYWHERE, NONE THE LESS. THIS IMPENDING
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED AS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS), BY THE SPC. STORM WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE
WARM FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING...AND ALL THE
WAY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM.

POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SHUT THINGS DOWN.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
BRING PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM WALKER TO GRAND MARAIS.
WI...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR ALL OF NW WIS.

SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-191230-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
730 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. OF
GREATEST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. ALL THE
FORECAST PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BE SURE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS THIS SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT UNFOLDS. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT TODAY...BUT
IT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

DAP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             DULUTH                  46.78N 92.12W
04/18/2004  0.75 INCH        SOUTHEAST ST. LOUI MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EOM

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