Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 AM CST THU MAR 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE DETAILS. THE 06Z MESOETA OFFERS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE UKMET/GFS AND THE ETA/NGM/CANADIAN.
THE 06Z MESOETA ALSO HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE BATCH OF
CONVECTION IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE SHOWERS IN NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION IN NORTH DAKOTA IS
OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL TOTALS AND H85 COMPUTED LI THAT
IS AROUND ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW ZERO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
RUC AND MESOETA FOR THE SHORT TERM DETAILS.

FOR TODAY...THE FIRST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS DENSE FOG IN NW WI. WILL
MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES ALREADY IN THE
ADVISORY. THE MODELS ARE REALLY HINTING AT ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE RUC FORECASTS TOTAL TOTALS IN THE MID
50S MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY...ALONG WITH H85 COMPUTED LI
OF AROUND -3C. STRONG WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING TO SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL
BE TOUGH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE SUBTLE SURFACE
FEATURES...THINK THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA WILL SEE LIKELY
TYPE PRECIPITATION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE FOR THE NORTHWEST...BUT
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL WINS OUT IT COULD BE RATHER RAINY
THERE AS WELL.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING
COOLER AIR AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TOO WARM...SO WILL GO WITH COOLER MAV/MET.

ON FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON ACROSS THE
NORTH. WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPS DUE TO EAST/NE WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COOLEST AIR WILL
BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS.

OTHER THAN THAT...IT COULD BE A WET WEEKEND...AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR ASHLAND...IRON...
     SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.

DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1032 AM CST THU MAR 25 2004

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-261330-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-C. ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-DOUGLAS-IRON-
KOOCHICHING-N. AITKIN-N. CASS-N. ITASCA-N. LAKE/N. COOK-N. ST. LOUIS-
PINE-PRICE-S. AITKIN-S. CASS-S. COOK/LAKESHORE-S. ITASCA-
S. LAKE/LAKESHORE-S. ST. LOUIS/CARLTON-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
1032 AM CST THU MAR 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL BLANKET PORTIONS OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

KFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1055 AM CST THU MAR 25 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             PINE RIVER              46.72N 94.40W
03/25/2004  0.75 INCH        SOUTHERN CASS      MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STEWART