Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Duluth, MN

March 25, 2004Cass County, Minnesota

NWS Duluth, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 25, 2004, 10:26 AM CST for Cass County, Minnesota. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2004, 10:26 AM CST (16:26 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2004, 11:30 AM CST
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cass County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1535 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 255 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 25, 3:15 AM CST, 7 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 3:15 AM CST, 7 hours 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 AM CST THU MAR 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCONTINUITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE DETAILS. THE 06Z MESOETA OFFERS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE UKMET/GFS AND THE ETA/NGM/CANADIAN.
THE 06Z MESOETA ALSO HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE BATCH OF
CONVECTION IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE SHOWERS IN NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION IN NORTH DAKOTA IS
OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL TOTALS AND H85 COMPUTED LI THAT
IS AROUND ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW ZERO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
RUC AND MESOETA FOR THE SHORT TERM DETAILS.

FOR TODAY...THE FIRST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS DENSE FOG IN NW WI. WILL
MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES ALREADY IN THE
ADVISORY. THE MODELS ARE REALLY HINTING AT ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE RUC FORECASTS TOTAL TOTALS IN THE MID
50S MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY...ALONG WITH H85 COMPUTED LI
OF AROUND -3C. STRONG WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING TO SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL
BE TOUGH GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND THE SUBTLE SURFACE
FEATURES...THINK THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA WILL SEE LIKELY
TYPE PRECIPITATION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE FOR THE NORTHWEST...BUT
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL WINS OUT IT COULD BE RATHER RAINY
THERE AS WELL.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING
COOLER AIR AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TOO WARM...SO WILL GO WITH COOLER MAV/MET.

ON FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON ACROSS THE
NORTH. WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPS DUE TO EAST/NE WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE COOLEST AIR WILL
BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS.

OTHER THAN THAT...IT COULD BE A WET WEEKEND...AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z FOR ASHLAND...IRON...
     SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.

DAP

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 7:30 AM CST, 2 hours 56 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 25, 11:37 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Itasca	53 min
Mar 25, 12:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.