Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PER 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS,
WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IS TYPICAL WITH NW FLOW,
CAPPING IS MINIMAL. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WAS NOTED AT 700MB,
WITH +15C AT GJT AND 4C AT RIVERTON. MOISTURE WAS NO PROBLEM WITH
16C 850MB DEWPOINTS AT AMA AND MAF HEADING NORTH. MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, A N-S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS
BISECTED THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAS ALREADY
INITIATED STORMS AS OF 2 PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. STORMS FORMING IN NE COLORADO WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS
EVENING AND THEN ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 500MB LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY, REINFORCING THE LOW-MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MANAGE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH PART OF THE AREA WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STILL YIELD
ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY. WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW, SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY TUESDAY AND WILL DEPEND ON
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS AND THE AMOUNT OF AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM
TONIGHTS MCS. KEPT 70S NORTH AND 80S SOUTH.

DAYS 3-7...

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE CHANCES FOR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE EAST WITH MEAN TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO GOOD
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO UPSLOPE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AND MAY HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO A CHANCE FOR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. ALSO WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL HELP BRING
IN ANY STORMS FROM COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 65 83 60 78 /  80 60 80 30
GCK 64 84 59 78 /  80 60 80 30
EHA 63 83 60 78 /  80 60 80 30
LBL 65 87 60 78 /  80 60 80 30
HYS 64 77 60 77 /  50 60 80 30
P28 67 85 62 78 /  50 60 80 30
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

FINCH/KRUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101059-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) MON AUG 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT TONIGHT
WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. BY EVENING, A COMBINATION OF UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS, DIURNAL HEATING, LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
WINDS, UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN
COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FINALLY REACHING SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEY WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. WHILE THEY COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE HAIL,
THE MAIN DANGER WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS, DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINS. SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN MANY AREAS FROM
MIDNIGHT ON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED TODAY, HOWEVER
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FROM MIDNIGHT ON IN MANY
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1126 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W IUKA                37.73N 98.82W
08/09/2004  4.00 INCH        PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY ROAD IN THE AREA WAS WASHED OUT

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     HAIL             3 N ACRES               37.14N 99.88W
08/09/2004  0.75 INCH        CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

&&

26