Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION ALL PERIODS...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES...AS A SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR INVADES THE PLAINS
STATES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720 WAS ISSUED BY SPC FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
4 COUNTIES OF CWA (ELLIS, TREGO, NESS, RUSH) AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THIS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
NEBRASKA-KANSAS STATE BORDER ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  THIS
FRONT SHOWS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG IT, THUS
IS MORE LIKE A TROUGH, BUT THERE IS SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE.  A VERY WOUND UP STORM OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL EASTWARD...SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
INTO KANSAS.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  THE FIRST FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE IS ONLY MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST TO EXIST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED.  WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS AREA, AND MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT FOR
MOST ALL OF THE CWA AS STORMS COULD GENERATE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT, BUT OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE IN THE WESTERN AREA.

AS THE SECOND SYSTEM DIPS INTO THE DAKOTAS, A STRONG PUSH OF COLD,
CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY.  WITH THE INITIAL FRONT
OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, STRONG CONVERGENCE AND LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP SET OFF A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.  THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER TUESDAY, GIVEN STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MORE BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRONT...AS WELL AS HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ENOUGH INSOLATION BE REALIZED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED, AS IT COULD BE
A FAIRLY BUSY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...CERTAINLY A
PATTERN RESEMBLING MID-OCTOBER VERSUS MID-AUGUST  WILL GO WITH 50
POPS FOR NOW OVER MOST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.

DAYS 3-7...

GOING EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK PRETTY GOOD.  STILL CONCERNED ABOUT TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THERE WILL MORE
CLOUDS AND SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT.
MODELS DEVELOP SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY SO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LOWERED EHAS HIGH TO A70.

WITH TROF OVER OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, EXPECT TO
SEE HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO TO ABOUT DAY 8
OR 9 AND GRIDS REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 63 84 63 81 / 40 20 30 50
GCK 61 85 63 82 / 30 30 30 50
EHA 64 85 64 92 / 30 20 30 40
LBL 64 86 65 90 / 30 20 30 40
HYS 62 80 57 73 / 50 30 30 50
P28 67 85 66 81 / 50 20 30 50
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

UMSCHEID/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101059-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1235 AM CDT (1135 AM MDT) MON AUG 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 3 PM ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO DODGE CITY TO SCOTT CITY. HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE AND WINDS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND SOME OF THESE COULD ALSO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND A FEW OF THESE WILL BE SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND.

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

KSZ030-031-045-046-090230-
ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-TREGO-
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 720 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
THE FOLLOWING KANSAS COUNTIES...

TREGO...ELLIS...RUSH AND NESS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP IN THESE COUNTIES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING.

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     TSTM WND GST     STAFFORD                37.96N 98.60W
08/08/2004  70 MPH           STAFFORD           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TWO INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN. RELAYED FROM KSN TV.

&&

GERARD