Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AT LEAST BY JULY STANDARDS, WAS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING WAS MANIFESTED IN THE
EASTERN DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD THIS MORNING ON THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED, ELEVATED HEATING, ALONG
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT(ABOVE 700MB) WITH THE WAVE, HAS INITIATED
SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
COLORADO AS OF 2 PM. THESE STORMS WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
PROPAGATE E/SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WAS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS OF 2 PM, BUT THE
REALLY RICH MOISTURE WAS CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM GRUVER, TX TO P28 TO EMPORIA.
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES, A 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DRAW THIS MOIST
AIR QUICKLY NORTHWARD. BY THIS EVENING, THE COLORADO STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING THE GOOD MOISTURE. WITH MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW,
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. 3-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
1 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. I FEEL THAT THESE NUMBERS COULD BE EXCEEDED TONIGHT, LEADING
TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS, STREAMS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. HENCE, A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 8 OF OUR COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
STORMS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL/SW KS SHOULD SEE RAIN, HENCE 100% POPS FOR DDC NORTH AND
EAST, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS SW. MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE MCS TUESDAY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A STRONG
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD RESUME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE PLAINS WILL BE IN WNW
FLOW ALOFT, WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG THE WARM
FRONT(THIS FRONT MAY BE SLOWED IN ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION BY
OUTFLOW FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT). THE
INTERSECTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A PREFERRED AREA FOR STORM
INITIATION.  ALSO, 500MB TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY FOR EARLY
JULY(-10C), LEADING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES AND
RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND EURO SIMILAR
IN PUSHING A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY THE
700MB TEMPS COOL OFF ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF POPS. SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE RAISED
TEMPS SEVERAL AREAS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH AREA GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 61 81 61 90 /100 00 20 20
GCK 60 80 59 91 /100 00 20 20
EHA 61 81 61 92 / 50 00 20 20
LBL 61 81 62 92 / 80 00 20 20
HYS 60 81 58 89 /100 00 20 20
P28 63 83 63 90 /100 50 00 20
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

&&

FINCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

KSZ043-061>063-074>079-084-085-061000-
EDWARDS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-MORTON-SCOTT-
STANTON-STEVENS-
106 PM CDT (1206 PM MDT) MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE WILL BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. MINOR
FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND BUT THE DETAILS
ARE UNCLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 7 PM.

KSZ080-081-086>090-061000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-KIOWA-MEADE-PRATT-SEWARD-
106 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM. THESE STORMS
MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE, WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND BUT THE DETAILS
ARE UNCLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM.

KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-061000-
ELLIS-HODGEMAN-LANE-NESS-PAWNEE-RUSH-STAFFORD-TREGO-
106 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE WILL BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND BUT THE DETAILS
ARE UNCLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY AFTER 9 PM.

FINCH