Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TSTORM CHANCES AND LOCATION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE OVER NV YESTERDAY HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO NW KANSAS ATTM
PER WV IMAGERY WITH STORM ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF IT. ANOTHER
DISTINCT WAVE IS NOW DIVING SE THRU ND AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER INTO TODAYS WEATHER. AS THE WAVE DIVES SE, IT WILL SEND A
FRONT SOUTH INTO KS DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FORECASTED
MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT WITH THIS
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY, WITH ONE OR MORE MCSS
EVOLVING AND MOVING SOUTH OUT OF AREA DURING THE NIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO IN AN UPSLOPE REGIME
BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE SE OVER FAR SW KS.

WITH WINDS DYING OFF TOWARD EARLY SUN MORNING AND WITH DEWPOINTS
STILL AROUND 60, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG OVER THE AREA.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, IT SHOWS A NEGATIVE HYDROLAPSE WHICH IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG. SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AND
ZONES FOR NOW.

SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
700MB TEMPS OF 13-14C ALONG WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF
5820 METERS INDICATES FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP A
LID ON THINGS. WILL HEDGE THOUGH AND PUT A 10 POP OUT WEST IN
CASE A STRAY CONVECTIVE PLUME DECIDES TO GO UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS THE UKMET SUGGESTS.

AS FOR TEMPS, MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 87 61 89 64 / 50 50 00 00
GCK 88 59 91 64 / 40 40 10 10
EHA 91 59 92 62 / 40 40 10 10
LBL 90 61 90 64 / 40 40 10 10
HYS 83 59 87 65 / 50 50 00 00
P28 85 63 86 66 / 50 50 00 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

LACY/GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1137 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

KSZ031-045-046-063>066-075>081-084>090-061100-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HASKELL-
HODGEMAN-KIOWA-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-RUSH-SEWARD-STAFFORD-
STEVENS-
1137 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR
A LINE FROM HAYS TO ELKHART AROUND 400 PM AND SUBSEQUENTLY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS, REACHING DODGE CITY AND
LIBERAL BY 600 PM AND MEDICINE LODGE BY 11 PM. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER KANSAS WILL REMAIN WEAK, AND
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
THEY QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. WITH QUITE COOL AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS IT
DOES, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED, BUT A FEW COULD BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KSZ030-043-044-061-062-074-061100-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-LANE-SCOTT-STANTON-TREGO-
1137 AM CDT (1037 AM MDT) SAT JUN 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 500 PM, AND
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER AN INCH IN
DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY 600
PM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER KANSAS WILL REMAIN WEAK, AND
INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
THEY QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. WITH QUITE COOL AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS IT
DOES, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED, BUT A FEW COULD BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

01