Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 181727
FFSCTP
PAC061-182115-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004


...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR HUNTINGDON COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

THE SMITHFIELD LEVEE...THAT PROTECTS SMITHFIELD TOWNSHIP FROM THE 
WATERS OF THE JUNIATA RIVER...IS STILL IN DANGER OF FAILING. 

LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT THAT EFFORTS CONTINUE TO 
SHORE UP THE LEVEE.  HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD EVACUATION IS NOW IN 
EFFECT. BY ONE ESTIMATE...THREE THOUSAND TO FOUR THOUSAND PEOPLE 
HAVE BEEN ASKED TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES AND BUSINESSES.  

THE JUNIATA RIVER APPEARS TO BE CRESTING AT THE GAGE IN 
HUNTINGDON...AROUND 18 FEET...AT 1 PM.  THE RIVER SHOULD START TO 
FALL SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT GO BACK BELOW THE 12 FOOT 
FLOOD STAGE AT HUNTINGDON UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PLEASE TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIVES...IF YOU ARE REQUESTED TO 
EVACUATE...DO SO IMMEDIATELY. 

FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE 
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. HEED ALL 
ROAD CLOSURES. TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

$$

DANGELO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
934 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

UPDATE TO REMOVE HEADLINE FOR FLOOD WATCH WHICH HAS EXPIRED. CUT
BACK POPS ACROSS SE TO HELP TIME ENDING OF PCPN. STARTING TO GET
SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC...BUT EXPECT THAT TO FILL IN WITH MORE SC AS
HEATING GETS GOING...UNTIL SIG DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

AVIATION...

RAIN WILL END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR
ALONG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THEN.  AFTER
THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
MVFR/VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SAT NIGHT...PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE...BUT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DRYING AIR
WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

LL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO EASTERN PA THIS
MORNING...WHILE BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP MOVING THRU NW
MTNS. WIDESPREAD 3-6 INCH RAINFALL SO FAR...WITH ISOLATED REPORTS IN
EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES YET TO FALL OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BEFORE RAIN CUTS OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL CLEAR FLOOD WATCH OVER WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES...WHERE RAIN
HAS ENDED AND EMA REPORTING NO SIG PROBLEMS. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CONTINUE WATCH THRU MIDNIGHT AS MANY LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WELL AFTER THE RAIN ENDS THIS AM.

HI PRES BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
SOME OF THE COOLEST WX YET THIS FALL SEASON. AS WINDS DIE SUN
NITE...PATCHY FROST SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH. MODEL 900MB TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RUNNING ARND
10C...SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

MREF DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WX FOR
CENTRAL PA AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SFC HI PRES
OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOL NIGHTS W/AREAS OF FOG.
HOWEVER...850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABV NORMAL FOR SEPT...SUGGEST HIGHS
NR 80F BY MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLGHT CHC CAT.

HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-7 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA HAS TRIGGERED
MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE MAINSTEM AND WEST
BRANCHES OF THE SUSQUEHANNA AS WELL AS ALONG THE JUNIATA. HEAVY RAIN
STILL FALLING AT THIS HOUR OVER ALL BUT FAR NWRN PA EXACERBATING THE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

RISES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY AT MOST
SPOTS...WITH SOME OF THE BIGGER POINTS LIKE HARRISBURG AND DANVILLE
FORECAST TO NOT CREST UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR EVEN MONDAY.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...GARTNER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
448 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-190844-
ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-
COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA-
MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA-
448 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING. HOWEVER...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

ALTHOUGH FLOODING OF SMALLER STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL SUBSIDE
BY LATE SATURDAY...FLOODING ON MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY AND A PORTION OF MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.