Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL BEND IN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOW DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE UP TO ABOUT 7KFT.  DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION IS PROVIDING GOOD FOCUS FOR THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION.
TROPICAL LIKE RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED OVER 1 IN ABOUT 30 MINS THIS
MORNING AT CRP.  WILL HOWEVER HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW SINCE THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS FALLING IN AREAS THAT GOT
LITTLE YESTERDAY.  GUIDANCE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GFS KEEPING US IN THE PRECIP ALL DAY.  WITH
BEST MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE COAST AND JUST TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR
BRO...WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTN...THEN TAPER OFF FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHC OVER THE
NE.  WENT CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGHS GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS TRYING TO BECOME MORE
CONVERGENT ON A SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO DRYING THE AREA UP ON
MONDAY.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NO RAINFALL FORECAST.  MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SURFACE RIDGE DOWN ON MONDAY
AND MOVING THE HIGH EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK RIPPLE OF ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA (MAINLY NORTH) ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
RETURNS.  CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN SEEING ANY PRECIP BUT IF IT SHOULD
HAPPEN WOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP THERE.  BETTER TROUGH
APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY. GFS LESS PROGRESSIVE ON MOVING THE TROUGH
ACROSS.  WILL HOLD OFF ON GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
ALTHOUGH UKMET NOW HINTING AT THE SAME THING (CANADIAN/NOGAPS STILL
LOOKS PROGRESSIVE).  GFS-MOS STILL LOOKING TOO COOL FOR HIGH TEMPS
AFTER MONDAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 66 80 60 80 / 70 30 10 05 00
VICTORIA       78 63 81 56 80 / 60 20 05 00 00
LAREDO         83 65 82 63 83 / 50 30 10 05 00
ALICE          80 64 82 59 83 / 70 30 10 05 00
ROCKPORT       78 66 80 61 80 / 60 30 10 00 00
COTULLA        79 62 80 58 82 / 50 30 05 00 00

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

91/JD...SHORT-TERM
86/GW...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1100 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-251100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
1100 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND WATERS FOR WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OFFSHORE OF 5 TO 7 FEET. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINES WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.  RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

91/86/76