Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
355 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST REMAINS
CHALLENGING AS MODELS STILL ARENT DOING WELL.  BELIEVE THAT THE
GFS/UKMET HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FRONT WHICH HAS NOW NOSED DOWN
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND IS LOCATED ALONG A COT TO LRD LINE.  THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PUSH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.
CONVECTION LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.  THEREFORE
BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED OVER OUR CWA...BUT
HIGHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.  STORMS NOW FIRING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...BUT SURFACE INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE TEMPS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.  SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SLOW
MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT HEAVY
RAINFALL.  SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS IN A WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS AS SELY 850 FLOW OF
20-25KT CONTINUES.  WILL FORECAST LIKELY SHRA/TSRA OVER EASTERN WITH
CHANCE WEST.  WILL POST A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND FFG VALUES ARE LOWEST.
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRETTY WORKED OVER BY TOMORROW AND WILL NUDGE
DOWN POPS BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  WENT COOLER THAN MOS
FOR TEMPS DUE TO THE ADVANCING FRONT AND RAIN COOLED AIR EXPECTED.
NO MARINE CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS CONTINUES TO PROG A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION WED. BY THEN...PW VALUES
ARE PROGD TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES WEST.
WL MAINTAIN ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE WEST FOR WED. THE GFS/NOGAPS
PROG THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ENTER THE REGION FRI. ALTHOUGH THE PAST TWO
RUNS OF THE GFS DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PSN OF
THIS SYSTEM FRI...BOTH THE RECENT GFS AND NOGAPS ARE CONSISTENT AND
WL DEFER TO THIS SCENARIO. RTN FLOW WED-FRI IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WL RESULT IN INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MSTR/INSTABILITY AND UPPER FORCING WL
RESULT IN CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTN/EARLY SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 80 64 77 / 70 50 30 05
VICTORIA       64 78 61 77 / 80 40 20 05
LAREDO         65 81 63 79 / 50 40 30 05
ALICE          67 80 63 79 / 70 50 30 05
ROCKPORT       69 78 66 77 / 70 50 20 05
COTULLA        62 78 60 78 / 50 40 30 05

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR BEE...GOLIAD...
    VICTORIA...CALHOUN...ARANSAS AND REFUGIO UNTIL 6 AM.

&&

92/TR...SHORT-TERM
87...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-251100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
430 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.  SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AREA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AS ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMBINES WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.  RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

91/86.TR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

TXZ239-250030-
WEBB-
643 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEBB COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...OR ABOUT
9 MILES SOUTH OF AGUILARES...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AGUILARES AND MIRANDO CITY BY 700 PM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES AN HOUR.

MB