Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
930 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

.UPDATE...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF MOVING EWD THRU SW U.S. AND NRN MX
THIS EVENING AS VORT MAX DROPS THRU BASE OF TROF. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COAHUILA AND NOW MOVING ACROSS
RIO GRANDE. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF CONVECTION BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES OUT OF RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND INTO COASTAL BEND...MOVING INTO
A SFC LAYER THAT WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AND WRLY
850-700MB FLOW ABOVE THAT. ALSO WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM LARGE SCALE
ASCENT THAT WILL BE LAGGING SOMEWHAT TO WEST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL APPROACH WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 09Z AND MOVE INTO COASTAL BEND
COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THIS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE FORM 700-300MB Q-V CONV AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS
WELL AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO SUNRISE AND CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
NRN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT RISK AREA AND WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION IN
ZONES. WILL DO SOME REWORDING OF ZONES TO BETTER HANDLE THE TIMING
OF PRECIP. OTHER CONCERN IS THE FOG POTENTIAL ESP ACROSS THE EAST.
TEMP/DEW POINT GAP NARROWING ACROSS COASTAL BEND WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND REPORTING 5-6 MILE
VISIBILITIES. TRICKY SITUATION AS FAR AS HOW DENSE FOG MAY GET AS
HIGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST START TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. YET
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SEEN ON 11-3.9U SAT IMAGERY SPREADING SOUTHWEST
FROM HGX CWA...NOW INTO MATAGORDA COUNTY. NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SEA FOG SEEN FURTHER SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AS DEW
POINTS A LITTLE LOWER TONIGHT AND NEARSHORE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BUT MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED DENSE AREA PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEBB-LASALLE-MCMULLEN-DUVAL

76...SHORT-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-251200-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
600 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS TODAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH TEXAS.  SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE THIS
MORNING NORTH OF LAREDO TO PORT LAVACA LINE.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY APPROACH FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FROM COTULLA TO TILDEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

TR/MJG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

TXZ230-240-241025-
DUVAL-MCMULLEN-
348 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 40
MPH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN MCMULLEN
COUNTY THROUGH 425 AM CST...

AT 350 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF FREER.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
UP TO ONE INCH AN HOUR.

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
936 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

TXZ239-240-241630-
DUVAL-WEBB-
936 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS FOR
DUVAL AND WEBB COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM CST...

AT 936 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEBB DUVAL COUNTY LINE MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

PERSONS IN THE COMMUNITIES OF FREER AND BENAVIDES ARE IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS.

JM