Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

.UPDATE...SEA BREEZE FROM THE EAST AND OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION
EARLIER OVER MEXICO PRODUCING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS AREAS
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IN WESTERN ZONES W/ SCT CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS. ONE STRONGER STORM NOW FORMING NEAR COT...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT OCCURRED UP THE ROAD NEAR SAT SO FAR. WEAK
S/WV HELPING TO GENERATE THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AND IS PROGGED TO BISECT THE REGION (W/ AXIS
NEAR SAT TO ALI) BY 12Z. THIS SUGGESTS KEEPING AT LEAST ISOLD POPS
IN THE EAST AS COASTAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED TOWARD
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND AM TEMPTED TO SHOW 30 POPS
IN MOST FAVORED AREA ALONG THE NRN COASTAL BEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW
END CHC POPS IN THE FAR WEST DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS
IN THAT REGION. GIVEN THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV BY MORNING...NEED TO CONSIDER HIGH POPS ACROSS AREAS NE OF CRP
ON MON (30-50% ??)...BUT WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW MAKE THE
DETERMINATION.

MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND WILL BE ABLE
TO LOWER SCA FOR THE SRN BAYS AT 1030 PM ISSUANCE. NEARSHORE WATERS
STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS LAST CHECK...SO MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SCA THERE
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI 78  95 78  96  / 20 20 10 10
VICTORIA       76  94 76  95  / 20 50 10 20
LAREDO         80 102 80 104  / 30 10 20 10
ALICE          76  98 75  99  / 20 20 10 10
ROCKPORT       78  92 79  92  / 30 30 10 20
COTULLA        77  99 77 101  / 40 10 20 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA BAYS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM.

&&

MJG...UPDATE
WC/87...SHORT-TERM
MB/80...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-241009-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
511 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
OVER THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 37.

LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/JR