Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

.UPDATE...SEA BREEZE FROM THE EAST AND OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION
EARLIER OVER MEXICO PRODUCING GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS AREAS
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 IN WESTERN ZONES W/ SCT CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS. ONE STRONGER STORM NOW FORMING NEAR COT...BUT MOST OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT OCCURRED UP THE ROAD NEAR SAT SO FAR. WEAK
S/WV HELPING TO GENERATE THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT AND IS PROGGED TO BISECT THE REGION (W/ AXIS
NEAR SAT TO ALI) BY 12Z. THIS SUGGESTS KEEPING AT LEAST ISOLD POPS
IN THE EAST AS COASTAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED TOWARD
MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND AM TEMPTED TO SHOW 30 POPS
IN MOST FAVORED AREA ALONG THE NRN COASTAL BEND. WILL CONTINUE LOW
END CHC POPS IN THE FAR WEST DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS
IN THAT REGION. GIVEN THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV BY MORNING...NEED TO CONSIDER HIGH POPS ACROSS AREAS NE OF CRP
ON MON (30-50% ??)...BUT WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW MAKE THE
DETERMINATION.

MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND WILL BE ABLE
TO LOWER SCA FOR THE SRN BAYS AT 1030 PM ISSUANCE. NEARSHORE WATERS
STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS LAST CHECK...SO MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SCA THERE
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

CORPUS CHRISTI 78  95 78  96  / 20 20 10 10
VICTORIA       76  94 76  95  / 20 50 10 20
LAREDO         80 102 80 104  / 30 10 20 10
ALICE          76  98 75  99  / 20 20 10 10
ROCKPORT       78  92 79  92  / 30 30 10 20
COTULLA        77  99 77 101  / 40 10 20 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA BAYS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM.

&&

MJG...UPDATE
WC/87...SHORT-TERM
MB/80...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
NOON CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-231100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
NOON CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER ISOLATED HEAVY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE BAY WATERS BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 109
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS...
AND OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE VICTORIA AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL
BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVING INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

76/86/87

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1011 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

TXZ229-230330-
LA SALLE-
1011 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LA SALLE COUNTY THROUGH
1030 PM CDT...

AT 1011 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF COTULLA...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MILLET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MILLET...WOODWARD AND COTULLA.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL WINDS
GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH FREQUENT LIGHTNING VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES AN HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

MJG