Tornado Warning 6, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE GFS HAS VERIFIED BETTER AND IS CLOSER TO THE TPC TRACK SO PLAN
TO USE THIS MODEL FOR THE FORECAST. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE
THE TORNADO AND FLOOD THREATS. THE GFS SHOWS HIGH SHEAR CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H85 WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUS LOW LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES. THE THREAT MAY BE GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF
HEATING. THE CHS RAOB SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.4 INCHES.
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND TRAINING IN THE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE SUPPORTS VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE H5 TROUGH APPEARS TO LIFT
OUT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING CONFLUENT SO EXPECT COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.

PLAN TO CUT THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HIGHS SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND RAISE THE LOWS SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF MIXING AND THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE GFS SHOWS AN ONSHORE FLOW AND ALSO A COASTAL TROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD. PLAN TO USE THE MEX POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE NORTHWARD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER
TODAY     SE 13 1000
WEDNESDAY SE 14 1200
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLUMBIA     81  74  84  74 / 100 100  80  50
AUGUSTA      81  74  82  74 / 100 100  80  40
SUMTER       81  74  84  73 / 100 100  80  50
ORANGEBURG   82  74  84  74 / 100 100  80  40
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY
GA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY
&&

05/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-070940-
AIKEN SC-BAMBERG SC-BARNWELL SC-BURKE GA-CALHOUN SC-CHESTERFIELD SC-
CLARENDON SC-COLUMBIA GA-EDGEFIELD SC-FAIRFIELD SC-KERSHAW SC-
LANCASTER SC-LEE SC-LEXINGTON SC-LINCOLN GA-MCCORMICK SC-MCDUFFIE GA-
NEWBERRY SC-ORANGEBURG SC-RICHLAND SC-RICHMOND GA-SALUDA SC-
SUMTER SC-
540 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 PM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER
THIS MAY BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE TROPICAL STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
CONTINUED RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FRANCES
IS POOSIBLE THROUGHTHE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND INTO GEORGIA. A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY
BE NEEDED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.