Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CST SUN APR 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
AROUND DEL RIO THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE EARLY MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
ON THIS FEATURE. STORM SEEMS TO BE PROPAGATING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. I EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST
AWAY FROM THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL RANGE AND THE ADDED OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS PW OF 1.5 INCHES AND A NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDEX ALONG WITH A MINIMAL CAP SHOULD HELP WITH SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH AND MORE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE OUT WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MORNING WORDING OTHERWISE LOOKS GOOD.

.MARINE...BOY020 REPORTED AN EAST WIND AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH 4 FOOT
SEAS.  AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY CAUSING CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY CAUSING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE
EAST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  MVFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH
MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

64/65/CAMPBELL

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

TXZ248>257-051100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
600 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. BOATERS WILL NEED TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HEAVY RAINS
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE NAUTICAL MILE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSTABLE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A CONSEQUENCE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.