Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED TODAY AND IS
FIRING OFF SCT CONV TO THE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR MAINLY
OVER NW CAMERON AND WESTERN KENEDY COUNTIES MOVG NW AT AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH.  THIS MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
AN LI OF -6.4 BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PWAT OF 1.49 INCHES.
AFTERNOON VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD OVER THE WESTERN
CWA REMAINS PRETTY WELL DEVELOPED.  AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER WEST...THE CONV THREAT WILL ACCORDINGLY SHIFT WEST WHERE THE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE CONCENTRATED.  THIS IS GOOD NEWS
FOR THE BRO VICINITY WHICH HAS RECEIVED A BREAK IN THE CONV ALLOWING
THE FLOODING FROM LAST NIGHTS CONV TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT. THE 5H
TROFFING THAT HAS GENERATED THE CONV OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYSIS
STILL PROGGED BY THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO SLIP GRADUALLY EASTWARD
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE POSITIONED ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER AREA BY 18Z
MON.  THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SUBSIDENT W-NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...STEADILY DRYING OUT AND
STABILIZING THE ATMS.  HOWEVER...ON THE HEELS OF THIS FEATURE...
ANOTHER 5H SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS SOUTH TX ON TUES WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CONV CHCS ONCE AGAIN.  SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CHC
POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SOME WEAK 5H VORTICES MOVE OVER SOUTH TX IN THE 60 TO
120 HR RANGE...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY...SO
ANTICIPATE ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS ON THE LONG RANGE.  WITH
THE W-SW 5H FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...FORECAST TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD.  A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR 4 FEET WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN
TEXAS.  THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE BEFORE SUNRISE.
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
AVIATION/MARINE...63
MESO...VEGA

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1050 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

TXZ248>257-101100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
1050 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY MIDWEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SPEECE