Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 092053
FFSBRO
TXC061-092130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL 
CAMERON COUNTY...

AT 350 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR 
ESTIMATED THAT FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN WITHIN THE 
WARNED AREA SINCE 230 PM CDT.  

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO 
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN BENITO 
AND HARLINGEN.

HARLINGEN AND SAN BENITO LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS REPORT THAT 
NUMEROUS CITY STREETS IN BOTH CITIES ARE NOW FLOODED.  

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2621 9761 2607 9761 2609 9781 2621 9779

$$

SPEECE

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 092129
FFSBRO
TXC061-092200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN 
CAMERON COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN CAMERON COUNTY...SOUTH OF 
LA FERIA...HAS DRIFTED INTO ADJACENT MEXICO. THEREFORE...THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 PM.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 2621 9757 2585 9763 2588 9788 2622 9783

$$

PHILO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
940 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...KBRO RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MAINLY MARINE CONV FIRING
ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE MOVING NNW AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THESE
CELLS APPEAR TO BE FIRING IN AN AREA OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE TX COASTLINE.  ETA/RUC AND
GFS FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF THIS
MOISTURE LOBE AND BELIEVE THAT THE CONV WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE WITHIN
THIS POCKET OF MOISTURE TODAY. CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE CONV
AND ITS LACK OF ORGANIZATION WILL ALLOW THE BRO AREA A MARGIN OF
RECOVERY FROM THE HVY RAINS YESTERDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR IS
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO DEEP SOUTH TX AS THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING IS
SHOWING A LOWER PWAT THIS MORNING OF 1.50 INCHES WITH A STRONGER NW
WIND EVIDENT ABOVE THE 650 MB LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE FFG FOR CAMERON
COUNTY IS VERY LOW TODAY AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THE ADDITIONAL FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VBSYS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AROUND THE AREA...BUT THE FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY DUE TO THE HIGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
VALUES FROM THE RECENT RAINS.

WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT ZFP...BUT OVERALL
WORDING LOOKS OK.
&&

.MARINE...AT 8 AM BUOY 020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 12 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND PERIOD.  A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MARINE AREAS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DENSE FOG WHICH HAD REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IS BURNING OFF. SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.  CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY DECREASE TO LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY
AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES
NEAR ZERO STATUTE MILES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.(PREVIOUS DISC...CONVECTION WHICH SMASHED DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
BRO STANDING SINCE 1884 HAD VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED BY 03Z...WITH LAST
VESTIGE LYING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN MCV. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE BRO VAD WIND PROFILE WILL BE
UNREPRESENTATIVE OF WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW BNDRIES APPEAR
IN SFC OBS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH PBL SHOWING THE BEST DECOUPLING IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BNDRY. ONE SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE FOG. SAT IMAGERY/OBS SHOW
ALL BUT THE HIGHEST CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVER THE CWA WITH SOME BR
ALREADY SHOWING UP AT BKS. MODEL X-SECTIONS SUGGEST DEPTH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR FOG FORMATION DESPITE THE
RECENT RAINFALL RECEIVED BUT AGREE WITH PREV SHIFT IN GOING WITH
PATCHY FOG OVERNITE TONITE. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR FOR EARLY MON AM
SO WILL ADD PATCHY WORDING FOR FOG. SAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWS MID
LEVEL TROF AXIS NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE CWA. ANIMATED SAT IMAGERY
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST H5 TROF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATER TODAY
AND TAKE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WITH IT. NEVERTHELESS...
X-SECTIONS SUGGEST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO SUPPORT
SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SUN AND MON WITH COLD POOL REMAINING
ALOFT. WILL TAPER TO ISOLD POPS TUE AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF LIFT
WEAKENING H5 TROF EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. OVERALL...AM
INCLINED TO GO AT OR ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS/CLOUD COVER...AS
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO PROLONG THE WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE NWRN GULF.
&&

.LONG TERM...WED AND THU LOOK DRIER AS CAPPING SW FLOW SETS UP. SRN
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY WORDING IN THE
FCST. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA FRI AND SAT. WILL GO WITH
ISOLD POPS FRI AND SCT POPS SAT AS FRONT APPROACHES. SPG SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH BY SAT TO OMIT BREEZY WORDING IN FCST.)
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
AVIATION/MARINE...63
MESO...VEGA

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1050 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

TXZ248>257-101100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
1050 AM CDT SUN MAY 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY MIDWEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SPEECE