Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CST SUN APR 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS ALREADY SPARKING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
REGIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD
TODAY AS CAP CONTINUES TO BREAK...LIS OF -6 OVER THE REGION AND SFC
BASED CAPES >2500. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TOMORROW MAY
BE A REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE 4-CORNERS REGION
CONTINUES TO GET NOWHERE FAST AND NUMEROUS LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES CRISS
CROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

.LONG TERM...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAKES THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH IT. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS BECOME MORE DOMINANT
PUSHING WHATS LEFT OF ANY BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE NORTH. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY SPARK
ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW AM NOT QUITE
CONVINCED IT WILL REACH THIS FAR SOUTH.

.MARINE...AT 1 PM BOY020 REPORTED AN EAST WIND AT 14 TO 17 KNOTS
WITH 4 FOOT SEAS.  AMPLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY CAUSING CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY CAUSING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE
EAST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH TEMPO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MVFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 80 70 83 69/ 60 50 20 40 00
BROWNSVILLE         67 80 69 86 69/ 60 50 20 40 00
HARLINGEN           67 80 69 86 69/ 60 50 20 40 00
MCALLEN             67 82 67 86 68/ 60 50 20 40 00
RIO GRANDE CITY     66 84 66 87 68/ 60 50 20 40 00
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  70 77 71 72 69/ 60 50 20 40 00
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

64/65/MARTINEZ

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

TXZ248>257-051100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
600 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. BOATERS WILL NEED TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HEAVY RAINS
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE NAUTICAL MILE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSTABLE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A CONSEQUENCE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 PM CDT SUN APR 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             15 S ZAPATA             26.68N 99.26W
04/02/2004  1.25 INCH        XXX                XX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CHIEF OF ZAPATA COUNTY POLICE REPORTED BROKEN WINDSHIELDS
            ON VEHICLES 2 MILES EAST OF HWY 83 ON FM2687.

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
649 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

TXZ248>254-050400-
BROOKS-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
649 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...STARR...BROOKS...HIDALGO...
KENEDY AND WILLACY. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE
WATCH ARE FALFURRIAS...MCALLEN...ZAPATA...MCCOOK...
RAYMONDVILLE...AND RIO GRANDE CITY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL OR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION TONIGHT. RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES
YOUR AREA. IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT
DOWN ON THE GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER
TRY TO OUTRUN SEVERE WEATHER. PHILO

PHILO