Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MDT WED JUN 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...TGT-THU...FCST SOUNDINGS SHW LARGE CAPES ACRS THE
PLAINS THIS ERLY THIS EVE WITH 2600J/KG AT AKO...THUS SVR WX WILL BE
LIKELY.  TSTMS OVR URBAN CORRIDOR WILL END EARLY THIS EVE AS FOCUS OF
CONVECTION MOVES FARTHER TO E OVR PLAINS.  UPR TROF WILL MOVE ACRS
STATE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLO DVLPG ALONG ERN SLPS AND SPRDG E OVR PLAINS
ON THU.  THIS WILL DRY...COOL AND STABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA WITH ONLY SUM LINGERING ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE NE CORNER.  TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. WILL MAKE ONLY SML ADJUSTMENT TO
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TIMING AND TRENDS APPEAR ON TRACK SO NOT
MANY CHANGES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  MDLS DEPICT A DRIER
ZONAL FLOW OVR COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  ASIDE FM SOME
ISOLD POPS FOR ZONES 48>50...WILL REMOVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FM
THE RMNDR OF THE CWFA...AS AMS APPEARS TO BE QUITE DRY WEST OF THE
SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUBSDENCE IN PLACE.
GFS AND ECMWF STILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK TROF OVER COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT ...WITH A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  MDLS
ARE NOT AS GENEROUS WITH QPF ON SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD POPS
ALREADY IN THE FCST. ECMWF AND GFS START TO DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER THE STATE WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A LESS AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AND A NWLY
FLOW OVR COLORADO. GFS ALSO SHOWING PCPN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EACH
DAY. WITH INCONSISTENCIES DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
I WILL HOLD ON ADDING ANY MORE POPS TO THE THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GARD/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1049 AM MDT WED JUN 09 2004

COZ030>051-101200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1049 AM MDT WED JUN 09 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WINDS.  AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MAKE THIS MOIST
AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE OR
NO RAIN. FROM THE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

GARD/COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
222 PM MDT WED JUN 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             5 NE CONIFER            39.57N 105.23W
06/09/2004  0.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
258 PM MDT WED JUN 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             LAKEWOOD                39.70N 105.11W
06/09/2004  1.00 INCH        JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAMDEN AND WADSWORTH

0238 PM     HAIL             KEN CARYL               39.58N 105.11W
06/09/2004  1.00 INCH        JEFFERSON          CO   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL LASTED FOR 20 MINUTES

0217 PM     HAIL             5 NE CONIFER            39.57N 105.23W
06/09/2004  0.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FB