Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
355 AM MDT WED JUN 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...MORE OF THE SAME TODAY AS MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WILL
BE MAINTAINED BY LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS
MORE DUBIOUS THAN YESTERDAY...AS MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD LIFT IN LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALSO LESS WELL DEFINED...IT LOOKS LIKE UPSLOPE AND POSSIBLY
DENVER CYCLONE BOUNDARY MAY BE DOMINANT. STILL MARGINAL FOR HEATING
THOUGH CAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE END OF THE DAY. THERE WAS SOME LOW LEVEL
COOLING TO TAKE THE LID OFF LAST EVENING...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME WARMING COMING IN FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE
HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE SUSTAINED IN THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WITH A BIT LESS WIND
ALOFT AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER...BUT HAIL STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT. HODOGRAPHS
LOOKING A BIT BETTER FOR HAIL PRODUCTION THIS EVENING THANKS TO THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES/SKY...MAINLY
MAKING THE MOUNTAINS A BIT WARMER/DRIER. HIGH VALLEYS HAD LOTS OF
80S YESTERDAY AND KREMMLING HIT 91.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...AT THURSDAY AT 12Z...MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS COLORADO.  BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER US BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.  THE DIV-Q GRIDS SHOW SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  DOWNWARD
FORCING IS THEN PROGGED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND ALL OF FRIDAY.
THE LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW A TROUGH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  CROSS SECTIONS ARE
INDICATING A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS SOME OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER ALL
THE FORECAST OFFICE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  GRIDS SHOW THE DECENT
THETA-E AXIS OVER THE PLAINS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
...BUT IS FLUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS EXPECTED...THERE IS DECENT CAPE EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ITS GONE
BY LATE DAY.  NO CAPE ON FRIDAY WHAT-SO EVER.  THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ON THE CROSS SECTIONS IS OK THURSDAY...BUT MINIMAL ON
FRIDAY.  MID LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED ON FRIDAY...WITH A CAP IN
PLACE ACCORDING TO CROSS SECTIONS OF LAPSE RATES.  THE QPF GRIDS ARE
QUITE DRY...JUST A TAD INDICATED THURSDAY LATE-DAY FOR THE NORTHEAST
CORNER.  WILL LEAVE THE ISOLATED POPS GOING IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS
AND FAR NORTHEAST CORNER FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY...THATS IT.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TOMORROW ...WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS LOOK NEARLY THE SAME AS WEDNESDAYS MAYBE A BIT
COOLER.  FRIDAY LOOKS 2-4 C COOLER THEN THURSDAY AFTER THE UPPER
TROUGH DRAGS IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.

FOR THE EXTENDED WILL THINGS STAND PAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GIMMESTAD/KOOPMEINERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1049 AM MDT WED JUN 09 2004

COZ030>051-101200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1049 AM MDT WED JUN 09 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE WINDS.  AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MAKE THIS MOIST
AIR MASS UNSTABLE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  STORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE OR
NO RAIN. FROM THE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

GARD/COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
222 PM MDT WED JUN 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             5 NE CONIFER            39.57N 105.23W
06/09/2004  0.75 INCH        JEFFERSON          CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FB