Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
312 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS PRETTY SPARSE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DEW POINTS ARE STILL MAINLY IN 50S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THE RADAR IS SHOWING A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE
ELBERT/LINCOLN COUNTY BORDER AREA NORTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON...
INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER.  WATER VAPOR PICTURES ARE SHOWING A WAVE
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  NOT MUCH CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING.  GRIDS ARE SHOWING
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT IS PROGGED TO BE MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THE LOWER LEVELS THE EASTERLY COMPONENT STAYS
AROUND THIS EVENING...THEN DRAINAGE WINDS KICK IN.  SOME WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE PROGGED BACK IN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  GRIDS SHOW THE BEST THETA-E AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING.  ON SUNDAY...THE AXIS IS PROGGED TO FLUSH WAY
EAST.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO SUNDAY LATE DAY.  THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER US
THIS EVENING IS PROGGED TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY.  POPS IS
BE 20% THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...30% OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
WHERE THE BOUNDARY WAS.  SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER...10%-20% POPS FOR THE
LATE DAY.  FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW READINGS ON SUNDAY ABOUT
2.5-4.0 C WARMER THEN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...STG H5 RDG OVR WRN CONUS WL SLOWLY MOV INTO
CNTRL COLORADO THRU TUESDAY.  BY TUESDAY AFTN...H5 HEIGHTS PROGD TO
RISE TO 596DM OVR CNTRL CO WITH H7 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C. OBVIOUSLY
A HOT PTRN...BUT THIS WL BE TEMPERED JUST A LITTLE BY DECENT AMT OF
MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE RDG.  TEMPS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE
90S...BUT WE SHUD ESCAPE WITHOUT SEEING 100 DEGREE READINGS.  WL
CONT THE ISOLD POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING THUNDER.  LOOKING AHD TO WED
AND BEYOND ...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RDG WL HOVER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ARND THE UPR HI WILL ALLOW
FOR DEEP ELY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACRS NRN MEXICO AND SRN AZ. THIS WL
KEEP THE WHOLE AREA PRIMED WITH MSTR AT THE MID LVLS IN A TYPICAL
MONSOON PTRN.  A SIGNIFICANT SURGE MAY COME THRU THE PLAINS THURS
WHICH WL COOL AFTN TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY AND
BEYOND.  SINCE THERE WL BE QUITE A BIT OF MSTR OVR THE AREA...WL
INCRS POPS ACRS THE MTN AREAS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR WED THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  OTWS LTL CHGS PLANNED FOR EXTENDED FCST FOR THE
DISTRICT. &&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RJK/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1121 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

COZ030>051-111200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1121 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
MOIST THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW SOME DRYING IN MID
AND UPPER LEVELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FLOW ALOFT HAS INCREASED TODAY SO THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
FASTER THEN YESTERDAY.  THE WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS
NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL SEE THE BENEFIT OF THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER HEATING WILL BE INHIBITED SOMEWHAT WITH
THE CURRENT CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL.

TODAYS SCATTERED STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL
HAIL.  THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER COULD SEE LARGER HAIL WITH THE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.