Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 12, 2004McLean County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2004, 12:11 AM CDT for McLean County, North Dakota. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2004, 12:11 AM CDT (05:11 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2004, 12:45 AM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County McLean County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 11, 7:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2240 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -22 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1838 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KBIS 120511
SVRBIS
NDC055-120545-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1211 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM BENEDICT TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
  WASHBURN...OR FROM 28 MILES SOUTH OF MINOT TO 27 MILES NORTH OF
  BISMARCK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MERCER AROUND 1220 AM CDT
  BUTTE AROUND 1230 AM CDT

LAT...LON 4785 10122 4727 10118 4718 10083 4733 10077
      4733 10068 4784 10067

$$
TWH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 11, 2:00 PM CDT, 10 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 2:00 PM CDT, 10 hours 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...
PROBLEMS AGAIN TODAY INCLUDE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...TIMING AND
LOCATIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST FIELDS WITH
DIFFERENCES IN AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION PROGGD BY ALL MODELS. GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS AXIS WHILE ETA HAS MOVED
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF CANADIAN BORDER...FARTHER
NORTH THAN 00Z AND 06Z SOLUTIONS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
ALTA TO NORTHERN WY ON MSAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLUTION.
GFS QPF AFFECTED WITH CONVECTION FEEDBACK BUT WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW
GFS LOCATION AND HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES TO
ONGOING FLOOD WATCH. SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH STATE TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SEVERE...CONTINUING INTO EARLY AM ON
MONDAY. HAVE DELETED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE
BUILDS AND CWA REMAINS IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT ON
EAST SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS.

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...H500 NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE
ZONAL...EVEN A BIT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO DIG...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. 00Z
GFS GENERATES A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND SO I
JUST LEFT POPS AS IS UNTIL THE NEXT RUN. GRIDS STILL IN GOOD
COORDINATION AND MADE FEW CHANGES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING UNTIL 14Z CENTRAL.

&&

HW/SHULZ

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 4:28 AM CDT, 19 hours 43 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
428 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120927-
ADAMS ND-BILLINGS ND-BOTTINEAU ND-BOWMAN ND-BURKE ND-BURLEIGH ND-
DICKEY ND-DIVIDE ND-DUNN ND-EMMONS ND-FOSTER ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-
GRANT ND-HETTINGER ND-KIDDER ND-LA MOURE ND-LOGAN ND-MCHENRY ND-
MCINTOSH ND-MCKENZIE ND-MCLEAN ND-MERCER ND-MORTON ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-
OLIVER ND-PIERCE ND-RENVILLE ND-ROLETTE ND-SHERIDAN ND-SIOUX ND-
SLOPE ND-STARK ND-STUTSMAN ND-WARD ND-WELLS ND-WILLIAMS ND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BISMARCK...BOTTINEAU...BOWMAN...CROSBY...
DICKINSON...JAMESTOWN...MINOT AND WILLISTON
428 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SPREAD EAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RGT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 11, 9:43 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             8 E SENTINEL BUTTE      46.92N 103.67W
07/11/2004  1.50 INCH        GOLDEN VALLEY      ND   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            55 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

Local storm report, Jul 11, 10:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1029 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N DICKINSON          47.03N 102.78W
07/11/2004  0 MPH            DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUST TO 60 MPH.

1026 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N DICKINSON          47.03N 102.78W
07/11/2004  60 MPH           DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Local storm report, Jul 11, 11:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TSTM WND GST     KILLDEER                47.37N 102.75W
07/11/2004  62 MPH           DUNN               ND   MESONET

&&

Local storm report, Jul 11, 11:55 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NW POWERS LAKE       48.67N 102.80W
07/11/2004  81 MPH           BURKE              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

VJR

Local storm report, Jul 11, 11:56 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAZEN                   47.30N 101.62W
07/11/2004  60 MPH           MERCER             ND   PUBLIC

&&

VJR

Local storm report, Jul 12, 12:00 AM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1200 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND GST     DOUGLAS                 47.86N 101.50W
07/11/2004  74 MPH           WARD               ND   PUBLIC

&&

VJR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 11, 9:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Golden Valley, Slope	57 min
Jul 11, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings	61 min
Jul 11, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn	63 min
Jul 11, 10:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burke	67 min
Jul 11, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Hettinger	39 min
Jul 11, 11:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Divide	62 min
Jul 11, 11:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer	63 min
Jul 11, 11:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Ward	62 min
Jul 12, 12:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Renville	55 min
Jul 12, 12:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry	54 min
Jul 12, 12:40 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Bottineau	50 min
Jul 12, 1:05 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh	55 min
Jul 12, 1:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Pierce	54 min
Jul 12, 1:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Rolette	51 min
Jul 12, 2:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Stutsman	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.