Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
339 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW 1007MB LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN UPPER/
EASTERN WI/NORTHWEST IL.  PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/LAKE HURON.  UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
FORECAST TO SPIN EAST IN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...PUSHING THE SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE.  ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER-MID 60S...PUSHING CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG.  SO WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH AS FRONT/TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PUSH EAST INTO
THIS AIRMASS AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ALREADY OUT FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES...AND IF THINGS PAN OUT
AS EXPECTED THIS SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  ONCE FRONT GOES BY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH BROAD/DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.  MARINE ISSUES...KAPX VWP SHOWING 30KT WINDS AROUND 3K
FEET AGL...AND WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ARE SEEING SOME GUSTINESS
DEVELOP.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET...SO WILL
CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT...MAINLY
THIS EVENING OFF LAKE HURON/WHITEFISH BAY...BUT WINDS WILL STAY UP
ON LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JPB

.LONG TERM...OUR RATHER COOL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AFFECT THE REGION. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER SPOUTS.

TUESDAY...THE FIRST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY TWIRL EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA (MEAN 900-700 MB RH BETWEEN 85 AND 95 PERCENT).
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER PVA DUE TO THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTH DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WEST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN PLUS 1 AND PLUS 4 C (ETA A
BIT COOLER AND FASTER WITH THE TIMING). MEAN 900-700 MB RH INCREASES
TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THE BEST FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) IS
ACROSS THE NORTH SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY
AND DIMINISH POPS TO THE SOUTH (40 SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS THE BETTER FORCING
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER INHIBITS
DECENT SURFACE HEATING. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
WATER SPOUTS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON (THIS IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY).

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD BUT IMPROVING WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND (AS THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING TO KICK IT OUT OF HERE). AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT LINGERING CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
FINALLY MEANDER INTO EASTERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY (WITH NO POPS). AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WE WILL
START OFF SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW TYPICAL MID AUGUST READINGS BUT INCH
UP CLOSER TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SULLIVAN

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
806 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-101100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS
WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON
AND LAKE SUPERIOR
806 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EARLY TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
WATERS AROUND NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS...PLEASE
NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

ROWLEY/JPB/JZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

MIZ008-015-100000-
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
702 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAS EXPIRED. THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT REGARDING THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
808 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-100100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-
LEELANAU-MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-
OTSEGO-PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD-
808 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...ANTRIM...OTSEGO...MONTMORENCY...GRAND
     TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...ALCONA...OSCODA...BENZIE...
     MANISTEE...IOSCO...WEXFORD...MISSAUKEE...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...
     ARENAC...GLADWIN...CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...LEELANAU AND ALPENA

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL LARGER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

JZ