Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
941 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS OCCURRING NORTH OF M-32 WHERE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM UPPER TROF ARE GREATEST.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS
WI/WESTERN UPPER MI. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DYNAMICS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/
CYCLONIC FLOW...TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCY POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS IN GENERAL REFLECT THIS. WITH BIGGER
FISH TO FRY RIGHT NOW...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A ZFP UPDATE LATE THIS
EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE IF WE CANCEL PART OF THE WATCH EARLY...
WHICH MAY BE DOABLE FOR EASTERN UPPER AS THAT AIRMASS IS GETTING
SERIOUSLY WORKED OVER AND HAD LIMITED INSTABILITY TO BEGIN WITH.

ZOLTOWSKI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 339 PM MON AUG 9...

LONG TERM...OUR RATHER COOL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AFFECT THE REGION. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER SPOUTS.

TUESDAY...THE FIRST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY TWIRL EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA (MEAN 900-700 MB RH BETWEEN 85 AND 95 PERCENT).
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER PVA DUE TO THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTH DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WEST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN PLUS 1 AND PLUS 4 C (ETA A
BIT COOLER AND FASTER WITH THE TIMING). MEAN 900-700 MB RH INCREASES
TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 PERCENT. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH
60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THE BEST FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) IS
ACROSS THE NORTH SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY
AND DIMINISH POPS TO THE SOUTH (40 SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES).
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS THE BETTER FORCING
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER INHIBITS
DECENT SURFACE HEATING. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
WATER SPOUTS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON (THIS IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE GRIDS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY).

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FALL LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD BUT IMPROVING WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND (AS THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING TO KICK IT OUT OF HERE). AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT LINGERING CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO
FINALLY MEANDER INTO EASTERN CANADA ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY (WITH NO POPS). AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WE WILL
START OFF SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW TYPICAL MID AUGUST READINGS BUT INCH
UP CLOSER TO CLIMO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SULLIVAN

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
806 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-101100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS
WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON
AND LAKE SUPERIOR
806 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EARLY TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
WATERS AROUND NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS...PLEASE
NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

ROWLEY/JPB/JZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
702 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

MIZ008-015-100000-
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
702 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN HAS EXPIRED. THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT REGARDING THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
808 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-100100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-
LEELANAU-MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-
OTSEGO-PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD-
808 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...ANTRIM...OTSEGO...MONTMORENCY...GRAND
     TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...ALCONA...OSCODA...BENZIE...
     MANISTEE...IOSCO...WEXFORD...MISSAUKEE...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...
     ARENAC...GLADWIN...CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...LEELANAU AND ALPENA

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL LARGER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
929 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             3 N CENTRAL LAKE        45.11N 85.26W
08/09/2004  0.88 INCH        ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
947 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST JORDAN             45.16N 85.13W
08/09/2004                   CHARLEVOIX         MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

JZ