Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...ON THE LATEST SURFACE MAP...1008 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. APX AND
SURROUNDING RADARS HAVE BEEN LIGHTING UP WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN.
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW REPORTS OF PENNY TO DIME
SIZED HAIL (EVEN ONE QUARTER SIZED). IN ADDITION...A MCS IS
GATHERING STRENGTH TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUING IN THE MEANTIME. 18Z
APX SOUNDING SHOWED LOTS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH LI OF -8 C AND
CAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS (ALTHOUGH WIND
FIELDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 30 KNOTS UP TO 500 MB) WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THREATS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF
NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH WORKED OVER BY THEN SO THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG THOUGH.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL FAIRLY COOL EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER
MODEL RUNS (PROBABLY SINCE ITS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW) SO THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
IN ADDITION...THE ETA NOW DEVELOPS AN MCS AND TRACKS IT ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH NONE OF THE OTHER
SHORT TERM MODELS PICKING UP ON ANYTHING. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
THE MORNING IS NOT THE BEST BUT NIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO LINGER POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...DRIER
AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
DAY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RIDGES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. GFS BRINGS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN (ETA OR NGM DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING).
THIS IS LIKELY ANOTHER CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO WILL NOT GIVE
ANY CREDENCE TO THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOL LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE MORE BULLISH GFS IS
STARTING TO COME AROUND TO THE LESS DEEP ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE COOL GFS MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS AND TREND TOWARD THE
ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S.
IN ADDITION...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK (FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL). UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. HIGHS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SULLIVAN

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD, MI
230 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-031100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS
WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON
AND LAKE SUPERIOR
230 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SEE ONGOING WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EPOUFETTE               46.06N 85.17W
08/02/2004                   MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SECTIONS OF US-2 WASHED OUT

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N ST. IGNACE          45.94N 84.73W
08/02/2004                   MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO FEET OF STANDING WATER ON I-75

0135 PM     HAIL             4 S ROGERS CITY         45.36N 83.81W
08/02/2004  0.88 INCH        PRESQUE ISLE       MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0159 PM     HAIL             ONAWAY                  45.36N 84.23W
08/02/2004  0.75 INCH        PRESQUE ISLE       MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-022300-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND
TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-
MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD-
215 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...ANTRIM...OTSEGO...MONTMORENCY...GRAND
     TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...ALCONA...OSCODA...BENZIE...
     MANISTEE...IOSCO...WEXFORD...MISSAUKEE...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...
     ARENAC...GLADWIN...CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...LEELANAU AND ALPENA

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL LARGER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
232 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             15 W ALPENA             45.07N 83.74W
08/02/2004  0.88 INCH        ALPENA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED IN HERRON

0226 PM     HAIL             15 SW ALPENA            44.92N 83.65W
08/02/2004  0.75 INCH        ALPENA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED IN TOWN OF HUBBARD LAKE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             ONAWAY                  45.36N 84.23W
08/02/2004  1.00 INCH        PRESQUE ISLE       MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             6 SE ALBA               44.91N 84.89W
08/02/2004  0.50 INCH        ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&