Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL UPPER...SW THROUGH NRN WI INTO MN. ATMOSPHERE WAS
DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70F OVERSPREADING REGION. MSAS SHOWS
LI/S OF -4 TO -6 AREAWIDE. OBVIOUS QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
REMAINS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MORNING KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF NEAR 7 C/KM. MOISTURE AT 850 MB WAS
LIMITED. HOWEVER...WITH KGRB SOUNDING SHOWING +15C 850 MB DEW POINTS
JUST UPSTREAM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
ASSUMING AN AFTERNOON PARCEL OF 85/66 (QUITE LIKELY GIVEN FULL SUN
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION) MODIFIED KAPX SOUNDING PROVIDES AROUND 3100
J/KG CAPE...AND AN LI OF -9.

THOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK IMPRESSIVE...WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT
MORE SUSPECT. 850 MB WINDS WILL HOVER IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WHILE
500 MB WINDS GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 30 KT (HIGHEST IN THE FAR N).
ASSOCIATED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15 KT (FAR S) TO NEAR 35 KT
(FAR N) SUGGEST BEST STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ACROSS
ERN UPPER (VICINITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION).

FOCUS ACROSS NRN LOWER MAY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME 850-500 MB QG SUPPORT IS EXPECTED (MAINLY WAA INDUCED).
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY (KICKER) ISN/T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
THE STRAITS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. AND FURTHERMORE...950 MB WINDS
APPEAR A BIT TOO STRONG FOR LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR SE PARTS OF FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (NEAR 13K) AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS (NEAR 12K)
WOULD TEND TO LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT...THOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS (UPDRAFTS) MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
BEST THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
ERN UPPER AND FAR NRN LOWER.

SMITH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 445 AM MON AUG 2

LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DRYER/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR NRN LOWER MI AS ANY CONVECTION WILL
STILL BE ONGOING...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN
NRN LOWER MI BUT DRY UP NORTH. THEN...LOOKS LIKE WE GET A STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION AND DAYTIME TEMPS COOL INTO THE 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. GFS/UKMET STILL DEPICTING A CONVECTIVE
BOMB ROLLING THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MI EARLY WED AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE
FOR NOW.

ADAM

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD, MI
230 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-LSZ321-322-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-
LHZ345>349-031100-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-
MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-
PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS
WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON
AND LAKE SUPERIOR
230 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SEE ONGOING WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EPOUFETTE               46.06N 85.17W
08/02/2004                   MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SECTIONS OF US-2 WASHED OUT

1145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N ST. IGNACE          45.94N 84.73W
08/02/2004                   MACKINAC           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO FEET OF STANDING WATER ON I-75

0135 PM     HAIL             4 S ROGERS CITY         45.36N 83.81W
08/02/2004  0.88 INCH        PRESQUE ISLE       MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0159 PM     HAIL             ONAWAY                  45.36N 84.23W
08/02/2004  0.75 INCH        PRESQUE ISLE       MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
215 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-022300-
ALCONA-ALPENA-ANTRIM-ARENAC-BENZIE-CHARLEVOIX-CHEBOYGAN-CHIPPEWA-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-GLADWIN-GRAND
TRAVERSE-IOSCO-KALKASKA-LEELANAU-MACKINAC-MANISTEE-MISSAUKEE-
MONTMORENCY-OGEMAW-OSCODA-OTSEGO-PRESQUE ISLE-ROSCOMMON-WEXFORD-
215 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     CHEBOYGAN...PRESQUE ISLE...ANTRIM...OTSEGO...MONTMORENCY...GRAND
     TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...ALCONA...OSCODA...BENZIE...
     MANISTEE...IOSCO...WEXFORD...MISSAUKEE...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...
     ARENAC...GLADWIN...CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...LEELANAU AND ALPENA

IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL LARGER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE
WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
232 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             15 W ALPENA             45.07N 83.74W
08/02/2004  0.88 INCH        ALPENA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED IN HERRON

0226 PM     HAIL             15 SW ALPENA            44.92N 83.65W
08/02/2004  0.75 INCH        ALPENA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED IN TOWN OF HUBBARD LAKE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             ONAWAY                  45.36N 84.23W
08/02/2004  1.00 INCH        PRESQUE ISLE       MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             6 SE ALBA               44.91N 84.89W
08/02/2004  0.50 INCH        ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&