Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE 500MB FLOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
STRONG (IT IS STRONGEST THOUGH IN NORTHERN ZONES)...THERE IS A GOOD
DEAL OF INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. COUPLED WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS
THAT ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL TURNING...STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH SLOWLY WILL LIKELY
SPEED UP WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION...MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TOMORROW WILL HELP BACK THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
(CANT WAIT TO FIND OUT WHAT THE CADIII DAY 2 SCENARIO IS)...AND
DRIVE THE FRONT NORTH BEFORE IT SAGS BACK SOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. A
SHORTWAVE BY EVENING...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
WORRIED ME A LITTLE...SO RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY TO 20S.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN THE MODELS...SO MADE
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO     65  90  65  91 /  40  20  20  20
BEAVER       64  87  62  88 /  30  30  30  30
BOISE CITY   56  84  57  86 /  40  30  30  30
BORGER       65  88  65  90 /  30  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH   62  89  64  90 /  40  20  20  20
CANYON       65  91  65  91 /  40  20  20  20
CLARENDON    67  91  68  93 /  30  30  30  20
DALHART      58  85  60  88 /  40  20  30  30
GUYMON       62  85  61  87 /  40  30  30  30
HEREFORD     65  91  63  91 /  40  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB     66  88  62  90 /  30  30  30  30
PAMPA        65  90  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
SHAMROCK     69  92  69  94 /  30  30  30  20
WELLINGTON   70  92  70  95 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

KRAMAR

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-170500-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
DRYLINE CREATES INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
IN ADDITION...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

GOEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
834 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     HAIL             1 N DALHART             36.08N 102.51W
06/16/2004  0.75 INCH        DALLAM             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
839 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

TXZ012-017-170230-
POTTER-RANDALL-
839 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO RANDALL AND POTTER COUNTIES IN
THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND
UP TO 60 MPH WINDS...WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
RANDALL COUNTY...BY 9 PM. THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKENED
DURING THE PAST FIFTEEN MINUTES...BUT DID PRODUCE A 60 MPH WIND
GUST IN WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL...AS
WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. SOME ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY
ROTATION AT THE THUNDERSTORM CLOUD BASE.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN UMBARGER...CANYON...
AND PALO DURO STATE PARK...THROUGH 9:30 PM.

FOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
907 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HAIL             10 W HARTLEY            35.89N 102.57W
06/16/2004  0.75 INCH        HARTLEY            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RD

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