Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
230 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

ISC GIRDS AVAILABLE.

.DISC...MEG SHIFT WITH EVENING GUY NOW DOING THE AM PACKAGE. WILL BE
DOING AN EARLY PUSH OF THE PACKAGE. A PLETHORA OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE TORNADO...WAS FINALLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF KALB. HOWEVER...MORE MCS ACTION IS BLOSSOMING UPSTREAM
IN WESTERN NEW YORK...AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...WOULD REACH US
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRETTY HEFTY SW JET LIFTING INCREDIBLY WARM AND
HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE MCS TO FIRE UP. TODAY...A NEW
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA...BY LATE IN THE DAY (EVENING IF
ONE BUYS THE ETA).

.SHORT TERM...A LONG WAY FROM BEING OUT OF THE WOODS. VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME CONVECTION BY POPS WITH BEST CHANCES EARLY TODAY AND THEN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MAGLENTA EQUATION BASED OFF
THE LATEST ETA GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR EVENT (OVER 10
EVENTS) TODAY. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE QUITE HEALTHY (ABOUT
150)...WHILE CAPES RISE TO 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER. ALSO...WE HAVE A
POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH LATER ON. LOOKS AS IF TODAY COULD
BE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF OUR ACTIVE YEAR THUS FAR. WILL PROBABLY ISSUE
A SPS ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UA
TROUGH FINALLY CROSSES OUR REGION SOMETIME TONIGHT AND FINALLY WE
MIGHT GET A BREATHER ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE...WELL TO OUR NORTH
BUILDS IN ENOUGH TO DRY US OUT AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...IF
JUST BRIEFLY.

.LONG TERM...THE ETA INDICATES WE GET RIGHT BACK INTO THE PATTERN WE
HAVE BEEN IN AS MUCH OF THIS MONTH...AS BERMUDA HIGH CLASHES WITH
COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET COME TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ETA REALLY CRANKS SOME MORE SERIOUS QPF ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS MORE TROPICAL AIR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE ALREADY HAD IN
GRIDS AND LET IT GO AT THAT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE A BLEND OF ALL THREE MODELS.
NO SERIOUS DEVIATIONS FROM MAV FROM TOMORROW ON.

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE SW
FLANK OF ONE LINE (AS OF THIS WRITING) IS NEAR KALB. (ALREADY ISSUED
A AWW ON THIS). MORE CELLS UPSTREAM WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR.
SOME FOG COULD ALSO ENHANCE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE
PRETTY MUCH ALL OF MONDAY BUT SINCE IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT...WILL
NOT TRY TO DO SO IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTIONS
AT ALL OUR AIRPORTS DUE TO STORMS ANY TIME TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...FFA CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND WARREN
COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES HERKIMER COULD HAVE RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 6
INCHES ALREADY...BUT WE THINK SOME OF THAT WAS HAIL CONTAMINATED.
EITHER WAY...IF THE NEXT UPSTREAM MCS HOLDS TOGETHER WITH ANY
TRAINING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOMES
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HERKIMER. WE MIGHT BE
ISSUING A FFW. WILL NOT REDEFINE WATCH BUT NEXT CREW MIGHT HAVE TO
EXTEND IT.

 ALY...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING THRU MON MRNG.
       NYZ032-033-038-042.

HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-241100-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING TILL 8AM MONDAY FOR ALL BUT
ULSTER...DUTCHESS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES....

THE THREAT IS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THAT TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.  THIS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
PLEASE SEND ANY RAINFALL REPORTS OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE IN FOUR HOURS
OR LESS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA TELEPHONE OR INTERNET.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND MORE DETAIL...VISIT US ON THE
WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. FROM THERE YOU CAN CLICK ON THE AREA
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN...AND VISIT THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE IN THAT
AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004

NYZ032-038-240245-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN HERKIMER COUNTY...

AT 1017 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
POLAND...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF HINCKLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NORTHWOOD BY 1035 PM EDT
OHIO BY 1040 PM EDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             POLAND                  43.23N 75.06W
05/23/2004  1.00 INCH        HERKIMER           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSSIA                  43.26N 75.08W
05/23/2004                   HERKIMER           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLD BROOK              43.24N 75.04W
05/23/2004                   HERKIMER           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POLAND                  43.23N 75.06W
05/23/2004                   HERKIMER           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

KHH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

NYZ041-043-047>050-052-083-084-240530-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SCHOHARIE...ALBANY...SCHENECTADY
...SARATOGA...WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 101 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH....FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE LUZERNE-HADLEY TO GALWAY TO 9 MILES
WEST OF CENTRAL BRIDGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST
OF LAKE GEORGE VILLAGE TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF AMSTERDAM TO
COBLESKILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE GEORGE VILLAGE...LAKE GEORGE...WEST GLENS FALLS AND ROTTERDAM
JUNCTION BY 110 AM EDT
SARATOGA SPRINGS...HUDSON FALLS...GLENS FALLS AND DUANESBURG BY 115
AM EDT
SCOTIA AND SCHENECTADY BY 120 AM EDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

NYZ041-043-048>050-053-084-VTZ013-240600-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BENNINGTON...SCHENECTADY...RENSSELAER...
SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 121 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM WHITEHALL TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SARATOGA SPRINGS TO SCOTIA...
AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HARTFORD AND CLIFTON PARK BY 135 AM EDT
SALEM...MECHANICVILLE...GREENWICH AND GRANVILLE BY 140 AM EDT
CAMBRIDGE BY 150 AM EDT
DORSET BY 155 AM EDT
MANCHESTER AND MANCHESTER CENTER BY 200 AM EDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

NYZ053-054-084-VTZ013-014-240630-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BENNINGTON...RENSSELAER...WASHINGTON AND
WINDHAM COUNTIES...

AT 152 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM DORSET TO SHAFTSBURY TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTER BRUNSWICK...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DANBY TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOOSICK
FALLS TO LATHAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HIDDEN VALLEY...SHAFTSBURY...MANCHESTER CENTER AND MANCHESTER BY 200
AM EDT
GRAFTON BY 210 AM EDT
BENNINGTON BY 215 AM EDT
STRATTON AND LONDONDERRY BY 220 AM EDT
WEST WARDSBORO AND POWNAL BY 225 AM EDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
226 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

MAZ001-VTZ013>015-240700-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN BENNINGTON...BERKSHIRE AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 222 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POWNAL...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NORTH ADAMS...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NOEL FIELD AND NORTH ADAMS BY 230 AM EDT
STAMFORD BY 235 AM EDT
READSBORO BY 245 AM EDT
WILMINGTON BY 250 AM EDT
GUILFORD CENTER BY 300 AM EDT